Lightning vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Senators NHL game on April 7, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
2
6
Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Canadian Tire Centre
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 1 1 2
Senators
0 1 5 6
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    0%
  • Senators
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 1 1 2
Senators
0 1 5 6
P3 19:20 Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 18:07 Shot on goal by Jakob Pelletier saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 17:44 Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
P3 17:37 Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 17:34 Power play - Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate
P3 15:58 Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
P3 14:09 Shot missed by Ridly Greig
P3 12:50 Power play - Goal scored by Tim Stutzle assisted by Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk
P3 12:46 Power play - Drake Batherson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 12:35 Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 10:59 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 06:47 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 06:35 Jake Guentzel shot blocked by teammate
P3 06:18 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
P3 05:53 Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
P3 05:31 Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 05:02 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 04:24 Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by teammate
P3 04:19 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 03:48 Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Jonas Johansson
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:32
    Takeaway by Dylan Duke in defensive zone
  3. P3 19:26
    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  4. P3 19:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Jonas Johansson
  5. P3 19:18
    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  6. P3 18:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Pelletier saved by Linus Ullmark
  7. P3 17:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
  8. P3 17:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Linus Ullmark
  9. P3 17:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by teammate
  10. P3 17:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  11. P3 16:41
    Power play - Conor Geekie won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  12. P3 15:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
  13. P3 15:40
    Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  14. P3 14:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ridly Greig
  15. P3 13:04
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  16. P3 12:50
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Tim Stutzle assisted by Drake Batherson and Brady Tkachuk
    2-4
  17. P3 12:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Drake Batherson shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  18. P3 12:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jonas Johansson
  19. P3 12:32
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  20. P3 12:32
    Penalty to Yanni Gourde 2 minutes for Holding Stick (Drawn by Lassi Thomson)
  21. P3 11:22
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  22. P3 11:22
    Stoppage - Icing
  23. P3 10:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Linus Ullmark
  24. P3 09:00
    Giveaway by Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  25. P3 08:57
    Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  26. P3 08:36
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  27. P3 08:36
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  28. P3 06:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  29. P3 06:35
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by teammate
  30. P3 06:18
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  31. P3 06:10
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  32. P3 06:10
    Stoppage
  33. P3 05:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
  34. P3 05:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Linus Ullmark
  35. P3 05:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Linus Ullmark
  36. P3 04:24
    SHOT
    Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by teammate
  37. P3 04:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  38. P3 03:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  39. P3 03:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Jonas Johansson
  40. P3 03:30
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  41. P3 02:45
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  42. P3 02:45
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Fabian Zetterlund
    1-2
  43. P3 02:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  44. P3 02:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Jonas Johansson
  45. P3 02:06
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  46. P3 01:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Linus Ullmark
  47. P3 01:40
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  48. P3 01:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  49. P3 01:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  50. P3 01:32
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  51. P3 01:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Linus Ullmark
  52. P3 01:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Linus Ullmark
  53. P3 01:26
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
  54. P3 01:23
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  55. P3 00:34
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  56. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  57. P2 19:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Jonas Johansson
  58. P2 19:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jonas Johansson
  59. P2 18:40
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  60. P2 18:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  61. P2 18:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Jonas Johansson
  62. P2 18:35
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  63. P2 18:35
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  64. P2 18:22
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nick Paul assisted by Corey Perry and Nikita Kucherov
    1-1
  65. P2 18:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jonas Johansson
  66. P2 17:16
    SHOT
    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  67. P2 16:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  68. P2 16:39
    SHOT
    Dylan Duke shot blocked by Lassi Thomson
  69. P2 16:25
    Jakob Pelletier credited with hit on Cameron Crotty in defensive zone
  70. P2 16:21
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  71. P2 16:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  72. P2 16:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Jonas Johansson
  73. P2 15:46
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  74. P2 15:46
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jordan Spence assisted by Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle
    0-1
  75. P2 15:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  76. P2 15:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  77. P2 14:49
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  78. P2 14:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Jonas Johansson
  79. P2 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Jonas Johansson
  80. P2 13:42
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  81. P2 13:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  82. P2 13:15
    Emil Lilleberg won faceoff against Senators in defensive zone
  83. P2 13:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  84. P2 12:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  85. P2 12:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Jonas Johansson
  86. P2 12:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  87. P2 11:51
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
  88. P2 11:44
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  89. P2 10:58
    Stoppage - Icing
  90. P2 10:51
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  91. P2 10:47
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  92. P2 10:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Linus Ullmark
  93. P2 10:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  94. P2 10:31
    Lightning won faceoff against Artem Zub in offensive zone
  95. P2 10:31
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  96. P2 09:42
    SHOT
    Claude Giroux shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  97. P2 09:38
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  98. P2 09:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  99. P2 08:33
    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  100. P2 08:25
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  101. P2 08:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Jonas Johansson
  102. P2 08:05
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  103. P2 08:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  104. P2 05:15
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  105. P2 05:04
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  106. P2 03:40
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  107. P2 03:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  108. P2 02:58
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by teammate
  109. P2 00:44
    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  110. P2 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  111. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  112. P1 18:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  113. P1 17:22
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  114. P1 17:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Jonas Johansson
  115. P1 17:02
    SHOT
    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Brayden Point
  116. P1 16:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Jonas Johansson
  117. P1 16:41
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Artem Zub
  118. P1 15:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lassi Thomson
  119. P1 15:35
    SHOT
    Shane Pinto shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  120. P1 14:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Warren Foegele
  121. P1 14:46
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Lars Eller
  122. P1 12:51
    Takeaway by Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  123. P1 12:47
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  124. P1 12:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  125. P1 11:23
    Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Fabian Zetterlund in neutral zone
  126. P1 10:36
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  127. P1 10:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Linus Ullmark
  128. P1 10:12
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  129. P1 10:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Linus Ullmark
  130. P1 09:42
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  131. P1 09:38
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  132. P1 09:33
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in offensive zone
  133. P1 09:33
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  134. P1 09:18
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Artem Zub
  135. P1 08:49
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Artem Zub
  136. P1 08:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Linus Ullmark
  137. P1 08:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  138. P1 07:58
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in defensive zone
  139. P1 07:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  140. P1 06:57
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  141. P1 06:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  142. P1 06:33
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  143. P1 06:33
    Penalty to Conor Geekie 2 minutes for Misconduct
  144. P1 06:22
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  145. P1 06:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  146. P1 04:07
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  147. P1 04:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  148. P1 03:49
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  149. P1 02:52
    Corey Perry credited with hit on Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  150. P1 02:43
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
  151. P1 02:30
    Lightning won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  152. P1 02:30
    Stoppage
  153. P1 01:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  154. P1 01:19
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  155. P1 01:11
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  156. P1 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Jonas Johansson
  157. P1 00:55
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Artem Zub
  158. P1 00:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  159. P1 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Senators
30Shots on Goal32
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
15Hits19
12 Shots Blocked 12
18Giveaways11
LightningTB
SenatorsOTT
30Shots on Goal32
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
8Penalty Infraction Mins6
15Hits19
12 Shots Blocked 12
18Giveaways11

Lightning vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Senators
  • Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning 43¢, Senators -130

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 48%
  • Senators: 52%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 48%, while the Senators have a win probability of 52%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Lightning in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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