...
...
Read Article
Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [4/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Montreal Canadiens will square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Bell Centre on Thursday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Canadiens.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Lightning vs. Canadiens matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Canadiens, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 52% chance of beating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Canadiens odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+205) | +1.5 (-240) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +102 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Canadiens picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning -1.5 | +205 |
| Moneyline | Canadiens | +102 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Canadiens player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Canadiens.
Our projections give Guentzel a 42.7% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 42.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.8% |
| Brayden Point | 39.8% |
| Nick Paul | 20.6% |
| Gage Goncalves | 18.6% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 39.3% |
| Nick Suzuki | 29.1% |
| Ivan Demidov | 26.7% |
| Alexandre Texier | 25.2% |
| Alex Newhook | 24.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 8.6% |
| Brayden Point | 8.2% |
| Nick Paul | 3.8% |
| Corey Perry | 3.0% |
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 7.2% |
| Nick Suzuki | 4.7% |
| Alexandre Texier | 4.7% |
| Ivan Demidov | 4.6% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.4% |
Lightning vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Canadiens and Lightning at Bell Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Bell Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Thursday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure