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Lightning vs. Flames prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Calgary Flames will square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL action at Scotiabank Saddledome on Sunday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Flames game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Flames prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Lightning and Flames 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 61% chance of defeating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Flames odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+138) | +1.5 (-160) |
| Moneyline | -175 | +146 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Flames picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -160 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +146 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Flames player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Flames?
According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Flames.
Our projections give Kucherov a 39.9% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the star is an 8.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 39.9% |
| Brayden Point | 39.3% |
| Jake Guentzel | 36.1% |
| Brandon Hagel | 28.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 24.5% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Morgan Frost | 24.2% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 23.7% |
| Victor Olofsson | 23.0% |
| Matthew Coronato | 22.9% |
| Blake Coleman | 20.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.0% |
| Brayden Point | 7.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 6.8% |
| Brandon Hagel | 5.2% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.6% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Morgan Frost | 4.6% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 4.4% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.4% |
| Victor Olofsson | 4.3% |
| Blake Coleman | 3.6% |
Lightning vs. Flames game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Flames and Lightning at Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Flames insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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