France vs. Sweden prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 32]
Get France vs Sweden predictions for World Cup 2026 Tuesday.
World Cup 2026 action continues on Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET as Sweden takes on the favored France in the round of 32 at MetLife Stadium.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts France as the most likely winner of the France vs. Sweden game.
Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers further insights into Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
France vs. Sweden prediction: Who will win and advance to the Round of 16?
Our independent predictive model indicates a 76.6% chance of France winning, a 9.0% chance for Sweden, and a 14.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 3.5 goals has a 54.4% chance of staying under, with a 51.6% chance that both teams score. In the win to nil market, France holds a 41.4% probability to win without conceding, with Sweden at 3.9%.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is France to win or draw at 91.0%.
Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.
Sweden vs. France odds
We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| France | Sweden | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -325 | +1000 | +500 |
Total Goals
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|
| +115 | -135 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
France vs. Sweden picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: France @ -325 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Over 3.5 @ +115 via BetMGM
- Win to Nil: Sweden @ +1250 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: France or Sweden @ -700 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ +105 via DraftKings
According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is France to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on France's odds also provide the best value for bettors.
France vs. Sweden: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 France win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 2-0 Sweden | 11% |
| France 3-0 Sweden | 9.8% |
| France 2-1 Sweden | 8.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
France vs. Sweden player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Tuesday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in France-Sweden:
France
- Kylian Mbappe: 47.9% probability
- Ousmane Dembele: 34.5% probability
- Michael Olise: 27.6% probability
- Bradley Barcola: 25.8% probability
- Adrien Rabiot: 13.5% probability
Sweden
- Viktor Gyokeres: 16.6% probability
- Alexander Isak: 14.3% probability
- Anthony Elanga: 8.9% probability
- Elliot Stroud: 6.8% probability
- Alexander Bernhardsson: 6.3% probability
France vs. Sweden game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's FIFA World Cup matchup between France and Sweden at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: France vs. Sweden
- Date: Tuesday, June 30, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, France has a 76.6% win probability on Tuesday, Sweden has a 9.0% win probability, and there is a 14.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
