State of Origin Game 1 Betting Preview: NSW vs. Queensland [2024]

State of Origin Game 1 Betting Preview: NSW vs. Queensland [2024]

What is State of Origin?

State of Origin is one of the most anticipated events on the Australian sporting calendar, featuring a best-of-three showdown between two Australian state teams: New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland (QLD). Origin matches are known for their intensity, fierce rivalries, and high stakes, drawing in massive viewership and passionate support from fans across Australia and beyond. 

It’s akin to the Pro Bowl in the NFL or the NBA All-Star Game, where the best players from the National Rugby League (NRL) are selected to represent their state. This selection process ensures that only the elite players participate, with the players trying a whole lot harder on both ends than they do in the US-equivalents mentioned above.




NRL in Las Vegas

As you may remember, the National Rugby League (NRL) took the game to new heights by hosting matches in Las Vegas this year. This groundbreaking event aimed to introduce the thrilling world of rugby league to a new audience, and there’s a good chance that you’re reading this very article after watching those matches earlier this year.

For more information on how exactly rugby league works, check out this explainer from the Gladiator himself, Russell Crowe:


Match Overview

  • Date: Wednesday, June 5, 2024

  • Time: 6:05 AM ET / 3:05 AM PT

  • Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia

  • Teams: New South Wales (NSW) vs. Queensland (QLD)

  • Predicted Scores: NSW 18–19 QLD

Betting Insights

Moneyline

  • QLD Moneyline Odds: -130

  • NSW Moneyline Odds: +105

  • Win Probability: QLD 53.4%, NSW 46.6%

Spread

  • Spread Line: NSW +1.5

  • QLD Spread Odds: -110

  • NSW Spread Odds: -110

  • Spread Probability: QLD 48.1%, NSW 51.9%

Total Points

  • Total Line: 36.5 points

  • Over Odds: -110

  • Under Odds: -110

  • Over Probability: 49.1%

  • Under Probability: 50.9%

Best Bets

  1. NSW Spread +1.5 @ -110

    • Win Probability: 51.9%

  2. Under 36.5 Total Points @ -110

    • Win Probability: 50.9%

Most Likely Try Scorers

According to our model, Penrith Panthers winger Brian To’o is the most likely player to score a try for New South Wales in Game 1 of the State of Origin series. Our projections give To’o a 38.0% chance of scoring anytime and a 7.5% chance of scoring the first try at Accor Stadium.

For Queensland, Melbourne Storm winger Xavier Coates is projected to be the most likely try scorer. Coates has a 39.0% chance of scoring anytime and a 7.8% chance of scoring the first try.

NSW Anytime Try Scorers

PlayerProbability
Brian To'o38.0%
Zac Lomax35.1%
Stephen Crichton30.2%
Dylan Edwards26.0%
Angus Chrichton25.3%

QLD Anytime Try Scorers

PlayerProbability
Xavier Coates39.0%
Murray Taulagi29.5%
Jeremiah Nanai29.1%
Reece Walsh28.9%
Valentime Holmes23.3%

NSW First Try Scorers

PlayerProbability
Brian To'o7.5%
Zac Lomax7.3%
Stephen Crichton6.1%
Dylan Edwards4.6%
Angus Chrichton4.3%

QLD First Try Scorers

PlayerProbability
Xavier Coates7.8%
Jeremiah Nanai5.8%
Reece Walsh5.3%
Murray Taulagi5.2%
Valentine Holmes4.6%

These players are crucial to watch as they can significantly influence the game’s outcome with their try-scoring capabilities. Keep an eye on these athletes for both betting opportunities and pure enjoyment of the game, with their fast pace and strength a highlight for everyone watching.

Conclusion

Our model is predicting a tight finish in State of Origin 1, with the Queensland Maroons slightly favored to win. Sticking to the Queensland side of things, Xavier Coates is the most likely player to score a try (similar to a touchdown, football fans) in the game.

For more expert betting tips and previews for a host of sports around the world, visit Dimers.com and stay updated with the latest odds and predictions.

Ryan Leaver
Senior Sports and Sports Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver has long been entrenched in the world of sports and sports betting, now specializing in the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. His passion shines through in his detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles for both the NBA and NFL, along with his sharp prop bets for college football and insightful best bets for college basketball. Ryan’s expertise also extends to soccer, where he frequently offers practical betting tips and highlights the bets of the day. 

Known for his keen eye for valuable betting promos, Ryan adeptly guides bettors toward opportunities that enhance their wagering experiences. Collaborating often with DimersBOT, his articles are meticulously researched and offer savvy betting advice, making him a trusted source for sports bettors.

On the socials
Loading...
More from Dimers
About Dimers
icon 22,000+
Events covered per year
icon 8,000,000+
Users
Our partners
FanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMbet365