Rice vs. Texas State prediction: Why Texas State is favored to win Armed Forces Bowl [2026]

Texas State and Rice will meet in the 2026 Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Friday, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college football model predicts Texas State as the most likely winner of the Rice vs. Texas State game.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Armed Forces Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of the 2026 Armed Forces Bowl 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Texas State an 84% chance of defeating Rice. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 36-20.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Rice and Texas State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 56.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.

Armed Forces Bowl odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rice vs. Texas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: