Premier League Picks: Using Data to Predict Soccer Scores in Week 11

After another successful weekend for the Dimers Premier League soccer predictions - correctly identifying Arsenal's 2-0 win over Burnley and Sunderland’s 1-1 draw with Everton in Gameweek 10 - the attention now shifts to a new serving of EPL correct score predictions.

Each week, Dimers’ data-driven algorithms simulate every English Premier League match thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, tactical structures, recent form, and player-level data to predict the most likely full-time scorelines.

For Gameweek 11, three matches top the probability charts, with predicted scorelines holding between 13% and 15% likelihood - the highest in all fixtures this weekend.

Bonus: This week we have identified one match that shows both a 15% and 14% correct score probabilities, which means we can bet each with a combined 29% chance of hitting at +500 (6/1) odds - which makes them a +EV play.

For Gameweek 11, the strongest correct-score probabilities come from these three games:

✅ Sunderland vs. Arsenal

✅ Fulham vs. Everton

✅ Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United

RELATED: Dimers Predictions Display Pinpoint Accuracy

Premier League soccer Week 11 score predictions

Sunderland vs. Arsenal: 0 - 1 (+500)

Sunderland vs. Arsenal: 0 - 2 (+500)

The Dimers model’s standout projection for Gameweek 11 is a 1-0 Arsenal victory over Sunderland (15%) at the Stadium of Light, the most probable single scoreline across the round, slightly ahead of a 2-0 Arsenal win at 14%.

Sunderland were promoted to the Premier League at the end of the 2024/2025 season, returning to the top flight after an eight-year absence. Under manager Régis Le Bris, they have made an impressive start, currently sitting fourth on the table - level, on points, with Liverpool.

Arsenal, managed by Mikel Arteta, remain title favorites, noted for their defensive solidity. They currently boast the best defensive record in the league, having conceded just three goals through ten matches.

The matchup features Arsenal's elite pressing and second-ranked expected-goals (xG) creation against a well-organised promoted side that has proven hard to break down at home. The model's prediction reflects the narrow gap between a defensively excellent title contender and a highly competitive newly promoted team.

Across Dimers’ simulations, Arsenal’s clean-sheet probability is among the highest of any team this week, and 0-1 occurs more often than any other result, slightly ahead of 0-2.

MORE: Arsenal vs. Sunderland predictions

Fulham vs. Everton: 1 - 1

Next, the data points to a 1-1 draw at Hill Dickinson Stadium between Fulham and Everton, with the model assigning it a 13% likelihood.

Currently 15th in the league (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses after 10 games) Fulham, led by Marco Silva, remain a bottom-half side built on defensive shape and counter-attacking precision.

Everton, since re-appointing David Moyes in January 2025, have become considerably harder to beat, focusing on disciplined defensive lines. Moyes took over after Sean Dyche's dismissal and has been tasked with steadying the ship. The Toffees are coming off a 1-1 draw at Sunderland (correctly predicted in last week's article), illustrating their ability to pick up valuable away points.

The Dimers model finds remarkable balance between both sides’ metrics: nearly identical xG-for and xG-against figures and similar shot-on-target ratios. The simulations repeatedly converge on one goal apiece, making 1-1 the statistical midpoint.

MORE: Fulham vs. Everton predictions

Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United: 1 - 1

Rounding out Gameweek 11, Dimers projects another 1-1 draw, this time between Nottingham Forest and Leeds United, again at 13% probability.

Nottingham Forest have had a chaotic start to the season, with Sean Dyche having been appointed as their third manager, following the sacking of Ange Postecoglou (who replaced Nuno Espírito Santo). Forest are currently struggling near the bottom of the table (19th place). The club is attempting to find stability at the City Ground, where they need to shore up a defense that has conceded the joint second-most goals in the league.

Leeds United were promoted alongside Sunderland and Burnley at the end of the 2024/2025 season. Under Daniel Farke, they have been productive going forward, ranking in the top half of the league for total shots. They have, however, shown defensive inconsistencies, particularly away from Elland Road, a factor the model appears to weigh heavily.

Dimers’ simulations reflect this equilibrium perfectly: Leeds’ attacking threat balances Forest’s desperate need for a stable performance under new manager Dyche, leading most match runs to end level. The 1-1 prediction is underpinned by both clubs’ statistical tendencies - moderate goal output, similar xG profiles, and mirrored risk-reward patterns.

MORE: Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United predictions

Data-Backed precision in soccer’s toughest market

With two of three correct-score predictions landing last weekend, Dimers’ model continues to prove its edge in one of football’s hardest markets.

For Gameweek 11, the strongest correct-score probabilities are:

✅ Sunderland 0-1 Arsenal (15%)

✅ Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal (14%)

✅ Fulham 1-1 Everton (13%)

✅ Nottingham Forest 1-1 Leeds United (13%)

Every weekend, Dimers translates data into precision - showing bettors and fans alike where the numbers say the balance of probability truly lies.