Premier League Picks: Using Data to Predict Soccer Scores in Week 10

As we head into Gameweek 10 of the 2025/26 Premier League season, the Dimers predictive analytics models continue to do what they do best - turn raw football data into reliable soccer predictions.

By simulating each soccer match thousands of times, the Dimers algorithm processes 1000s of data points across expected goals (xG), defensive structure, player availability, and historical trends to pinpoint the most likely full-time soccer scores for every game.

After correcting predicting Arsenal’s 2-0 win over West Ham, as well as their 1-0 win over Fulham, plus the Wolves–Brighton 1-1 draw during October, the soccer predictions model has been in outstanding form - consistently highlighting value in the notoriously difficult correct score market.

RELATED: Dimers Predictions Display Pinpoint Accuracy

Premier League soccer Week 10 score predictions

For Gameweek 10, three outcomes stand out from the pack, with probabilities of 15%, 13%, and 13% - the three highest of the round. The below games are the ones we'll target in this week's EPL soccer predictions article.

✅ Burnley vs. Arsenal (0-2) +500

✅ Sunderland vs. Everton (1-1) +500

❌ Fulham vs. Wolves (1-0) +550

The best available odds for these three correct score bets are +500 (5/1), +550 (11/2), and +600 (6/1), so bettors are way ahead if even only one hits.

You can review all of our Premier League correct score analysis in our EPL predictions hub where you will find every Week 10 match.

Burnley vs Arsenal: 0 - 2 (+500 odds) ✅

At the top of this week’s predictive chart is Arsenal to win 2-0 win at Burnley, with a 15% probability, the highest correct-score likelihood across all Premier League fixtures in Gameweek 10.

Mikel Arteta’s side continue to boast the league’s stingiest defense, and Dimers’ data highlights their tendency to control matches through possession and shot suppression.

Burnley aren’t blunt in attack - far from it. They’ve scored 12 in 9 this season and hit six goals in their last three league matches, including wins over Leeds (2-0) and Wolves (3-2). Under Scott Parker, Games at Turf Moor have been notably controlled - just 0.50 goals conceded per home match with two clean sheets in four.

In over 10,000 match simulations, the most consistent pattern sees Arsenal taking the lead before locking the game down - their blend of structured buildup and territorial control leading repeatedly to a 2-0 finish.

With Arsenal’s clean-sheet probability ranked top across all fixtures this week, this scoreline emerges as a clear statistical favorite.

Bet $10, collect $60 if this one ends 2-0 in the Gunners' favor. At a 15% probability, the odds on Arsenal to win 2-0 are the closest of the three to being deemed as 'fair'.

Fulham vs Wolves: 1 - 0 (+550 odds) ❌

Dimers’ model identifies a 13% chance that Fulham edges Wolves 1-0, another tightly balanced matchup with a clear statistical lean.

Vítor Pereira’s Wolves sit bottom of the table, and their conversion rate remains one of the lowest in the league. Fulham, meanwhile, have been quietly solid at home, allowing fewer than one expected goal against per match on average at Craven Cottage.

The simulations reflect that defensive edge - Fulham’s consistent ability to limit visitors’ clear chances paired with Wolves’ ongoing attacking inefficiency - resulting in 1-0 as the most probable outcome across the dataset.
Bet $10, collect $65 if this one ends 1-0 in the Fulham's favor.

Sunderland vs Everton: 1 - 1 (+550 odds) ✅

Finally, on Monday, the Dimers data predicts Sunderland and Everton will finish 1-1, with a 13% chance - matching Fulham vs Wolves (1-0) for the second-highest probability of the week.

Both teams rank mid-table in attacking output but have struggled for consistency in finishing, producing remarkably similar metrics for shot creation and xG per 90 minutes. Sunderland’s energetic home approach underpins a slight offensive edge, while, last weekend's heavy loss to Tottenham aside, Everton’s disciplined defensive shape offsets it.

The result? A statistical deadlock. Across thousands of simulations, Dimers’ model repeatedly converges on 1-1 as the equilibrium outcome - one goal apiece reflecting each side’s balance of strengths and limitations.

Bet $10, collect $65 if this one ends 1-1.

Data-Backed precision in soccer’s toughest market

Even the most likely correct score rarely exceeds 15% probability, which is why Dimers’ success in this space matters. Each prediction isn’t a guess - it’s the end product of a sophisticated model built from thousands of simulations and countless individual data inputs.

For Gameweek 10, the standout correct-score predictions are:

✅ Burnley 0-2 Arsenal (15% at +500)

✅ Fulham 1-0 Wolves (13% at +550)

✅ Sunderland 1-1 Everton (13% at +550)

After recent accuracy across multiple Gameweeks, the Dimers model continues to show that when data and probability combine, you don’t just predict football - you understand it.