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Pirates vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win MLB Opening Day matchup [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Thursday.
The New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet on opening day of the 2026 MLB season at Citi Field on Thursday, starting at 1:15 PM ET.
The Mets will have Freddy Peralta (0-0, 0.00 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Pirates are going with Paul Skenes (0-0, 0.00 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' refined MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Pirates.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Pirates vs. Mets matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Mets prediction: Who will win on MLB Opening Day?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Pirates and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Mets a 53% chance of beating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 55% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Mets odds [3/26/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -115 |
| Total | o7 (-115) | u7 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +180 |
| Moneyline | Mets | -115 |
| Total | Over 7 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Mets and Pirates at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 1:15 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 1:15 PM ET/10:15AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pirates vs. Mets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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