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Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Chicago Cubs will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Saturday, beginning at 2:20 PM ET.
Edward Cabrera (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, while the Pirates are going with Braxton Ashcraft (1-1, 2.25 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Pirates vs. Cubs game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Pirates and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 59% chance of defeating the Pirates.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Cubs odds [4/11/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+161) |
| Moneyline | +130 | -134 |
| Total | o6.5 (-120) | u6.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +161 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | -134 |
| Total | Over 6.5 | -120 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Cubs and Pirates at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Pirates in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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