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Penguins vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Washington Capitals will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Capital One Arena on Sunday, commencing at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Capitals game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL game between the Penguins and Capitals, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 55% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Penguins vs. Capitals odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Capitals |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +124 | -144 |
| Total | o6.5 (-142) | u6.5 (+120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Capitals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins +1.5 | -185 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | +124 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Penguins vs. Capitals player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Capitals?
According to our model, Alex Ovechkin is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Capitals.
Our projections give Ovechkin a 34.9% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.3% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell | 32.5% |
| Bryan Rust | 30.4% |
| Sidney Crosby | 28.3% |
| Egor Chinakhov | 27.4% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 25.7% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 34.9% |
| Tom Wilson | 28.1% |
| Dylan Strome | 26.3% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 25.6% |
| Ryan Leonard | 24.9% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell | 5.6% |
| Bryan Rust | 5.1% |
| Egor Chinakhov | 5.1% |
| Sidney Crosby | 5.0% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 4.6% |
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin | 6.3% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.1% |
| Ryan Leonard | 4.9% |
| Dylan Strome | 4.6% |
| Aliaksei Protas | 4.4% |
Penguins vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Capitals and Penguins at Capital One Arena is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Capital One Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Capitals, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Sunday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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