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Penguins vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Ottawa Senators and Pittsburgh Penguins are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Senators as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Senators game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Penguins and Senators, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Senators a 57% chance of defeating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Penguins vs. Senators odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-198) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -148 |
| Total | o6.5 (+106) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins +1.5 | -198 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | +125 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -125 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Penguins vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Senators?
According to our model, Brady Tkachuk is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Senators.
Our projections give Tkachuk a 36.6% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 7.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 30.6% |
| Sidney Crosby | 27.9% |
| Rickard Rakell | 27.9% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 25.5% |
| Anthony Mantha | 24.4% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 36.6% |
| Tim Stutzle | 34.5% |
| Drake Batherson | 27.0% |
| Dylan Cozens | 26.6% |
| Shane Pinto | 25.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 5.7% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.6% |
| Sidney Crosby | 5.1% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 4.8% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.4% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 7.1% |
| Tim Stutzle | 6.9% |
| Drake Batherson | 4.9% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.8% |
| Dylan Cozens | 4.6% |
Penguins vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Senators and Penguins at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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