Penguins vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Penguins vs. Senators NHL game on March 26, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Penguins
4
3
Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Canadian Tire Centre
TEAM123OTT
Penguins
1 1 1 0 4
Senators
1 1 1 0 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Penguins
    100%
  • Senators
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Penguins
1 1 1 0 4
Senators
1 1 1 0 3
OT1 04:57 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
OT1 04:17 Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Linus Ullmark
OT1 03:34 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
OT1 03:04 Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Linus Ullmark
OT1 02:36 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Stuart Skinner
OT1 02:27 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
OT1 01:54 Shot on goal by Senators saved by Stuart Skinner
OT1 01:54 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
OT1 00:47 Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
OT1 00:29 Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
P3 19:25 Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Nick Cousins
P3 18:16 Carter Yakemchuk shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
P3 18:05 Shot missed by Carter Yakemchuk
P3 16:28 Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kris Letang
P3 16:18 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 15:26 Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Stuart Skinner
P3 14:40 Samuel Girard shot blocked by Claude Giroux
P3 13:47 Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
P3 12:56 Shot missed by Connor Dewar
P3 12:51 Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Linus Ullmark
Play by Play
  1. SO
    End of Shootout period.
  2. SO
    Shootout attempt by Shane Pinto saved by Stuart Skinner
  3. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Yegor Chinakhov on Linus Ullmark
  4. SO
    Shootout attempt by Tim Stutzle saved by Stuart Skinner
  5. OT1 04:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  6. OT1 04:43
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in offensive zone
  7. OT1 04:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  8. OT1 04:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Linus Ullmark
  9. OT1 03:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  10. OT1 03:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Linus Ullmark
  11. OT1 02:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  12. OT1 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Stuart Skinner
  13. OT1 02:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  14. OT1 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Senators saved by Stuart Skinner
  15. OT1 01:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  16. OT1 01:16
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  17. OT1 00:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  18. OT1 00:29
    SHOT
    Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Erik Karlsson
  19. OT1 00:00
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  20. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  21. P3 19:25
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Nick Cousins
  22. P3 19:04
    Rickard Rakell won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  23. P3 18:16
    SHOT
    Carter Yakemchuk shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
  24. P3 18:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Carter Yakemchuk
  25. P3 17:50
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Thomas Novak in offensive zone
  26. P3 17:50
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  27. P3 16:28
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Kris Letang
  28. P3 16:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  29. P3 15:28
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  30. P3 15:28
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  31. P3 15:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Stuart Skinner
  32. P3 14:40
    SHOT
    Samuel Girard shot blocked by Claude Giroux
  33. P3 13:47
    SHOT
    Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
  34. P3 12:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor Dewar
  35. P3 12:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor Dewar saved by Linus Ullmark
  36. P3 11:26
    Takeaway by Claude Giroux in neutral zone
  37. P3 11:13
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  38. P3 10:47
    SHOT
    Warren Foegele shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon
  39. P3 10:35
    SHOT
    Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Rickard Rakell
  40. P3 10:31
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Bryan Rust
  41. P3 10:05
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  42. P3 10:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  43. P3 09:53
    Nick Cousins credited with hit on Thomas Novak in offensive zone
  44. P3 09:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Samuel Girard saved by Linus Ullmark
  45. P3 08:34
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  46. P3 08:32
    SHOT
    Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Yegor Chinakhov
  47. P3 07:56
    Giveaway by Bryan Rust in neutral zone
  48. P3 07:19
    Jordan Spence credited with hit on Ville Koivunen in defensive zone
  49. P3 06:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Artem Zub
  50. P3 06:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Stuart Skinner
  51. P3 05:31
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Linus Ullmark
  52. P3 04:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Carter Yakemchuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  53. P3 03:58
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Noel Acciari in neutral zone
  54. P3 03:51
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Thomas Novak in offensive zone
  55. P3 02:42
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Ben Kindel
  56. P3 02:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  57. P3 01:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  58. P3 01:43
    Shorthanded - Ridly Greig won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  59. P3 01:41
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Rickard Rakell assisted by Erik Karlsson and Bryan Rust
    3-2
  60. P3 01:34
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  61. P3 01:20
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
  62. P3 00:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  63. P3 00:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Linus Ullmark
  64. P3 00:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Linus Ullmark
  65. P3 00:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Erik Karlsson
  66. P3 00:22
    Penalty to Artem Zub 2 minutes for Misconduct
  67. P3 00:22
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  68. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  69. P2 19:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Mantha saved by Linus Ullmark
  70. P2 19:49
    Power play - Noel Acciari won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  71. P2 19:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  72. P2 19:43
    Giveaway by Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  73. P2 18:53
    Stoppage - Offside
  74. P2 18:37
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Connor Clifton
  75. P2 18:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Chinakhov
  76. P2 17:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Amadio
  77. P2 16:49
    Nick Cousins credited with hit on Kris Letang in offensive zone
  78. P2 16:37
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  79. P2 16:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  80. P2 16:18
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Noel Acciari in offensive zone
  81. P2 16:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Stuart Skinner
  82. P2 15:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Mantha
  83. P2 15:48
    Claude Giroux credited with hit on Ville Koivunen in defensive zone
  84. P2 15:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kris Letang saved by Linus Ullmark
  85. P2 14:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Chinakhov
  86. P2 14:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yegor Chinakhov
  87. P2 13:31
    Giveaway by Michael Amadio in neutral zone
  88. P2 13:22
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in neutral zone
  89. P2 12:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Brazeau
  90. P2 12:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor Dewar
  91. P2 11:50
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  92. P2 11:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  93. P2 11:17
    Takeaway by Bryan Rust in neutral zone
  94. P2 10:45
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Rickard Rakell in neutral zone
  95. P2 10:36
    Rickard Rakell won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  96. P2 10:36
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  97. P2 10:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor Dewar
  98. P2 09:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  99. P2 08:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ben Kindel saved by Linus Ullmark
  100. P2 08:52
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  101. P2 08:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  102. P2 08:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Novak saved by Linus Ullmark
  103. P2 08:37
    SHOT
    Connor Clifton shot blocked by teammate
  104. P2 08:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Stuart Skinner
  105. P2 07:12
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Ben Kindel in neutral zone
  106. P2 07:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Amadio
  107. P2 05:26
    Justin Brazeau credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in offensive zone
  108. P2 05:24
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  109. P2 05:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rickard Rakell saved by Linus Ullmark
  110. P2 04:51
    SHOT
    Samuel Girard shot blocked by Jorian Donovan
  111. P2 03:45
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  112. P2 03:44
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Erik Karlsson assisted by Rickard Rakell
    2-2
  113. P2 03:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
  114. P2 03:00
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  115. P2 03:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  116. P2 02:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bryan Rust saved by Linus Ullmark
  117. P2 01:50
    Connor Dewar won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  118. P2 01:29
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  119. P2 01:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  120. P2 00:00
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in neutral zone
  121. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  122. P1 19:53
    Stoppage - Offside
  123. P1 19:21
    Giveaway by Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  124. P1 18:34
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on Erik Karlsson in offensive zone
  125. P1 18:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Carter Yakemchuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  126. P1 18:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Carter Yakemchuk saved by Stuart Skinner
  127. P1 17:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ridly Greig
  128. P1 17:12
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Sidney Crosby in offensive zone
  129. P1 17:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Stuart Skinner
  130. P1 17:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  131. P1 16:57
    Ben Kindel won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  132. P1 15:17
    Fabian Zetterlund credited with hit on Samuel Girard in offensive zone
  133. P1 14:45
    SHOT
    Connor Clifton shot blocked by Ridly Greig
  134. P1 14:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
  135. P1 13:46
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Rickard Rakell assisted by Erik Karlsson
    1-1
  136. P1 13:01
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Yegor Chinakhov
  137. P1 12:39
    Thomas Novak won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  138. P1 12:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Stuart Skinner
  139. P1 11:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  140. P1 11:45
    Penguins won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  141. P1 11:45
    Stoppage - Hand Pass - TV timeout
  142. P1 11:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rickard Rakell
  143. P1 11:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Karlsson saved by Linus Ullmark
  144. P1 10:55
    SHOT
    Parker Wotherspoon shot blocked by Carter Yakemchuk
  145. P1 08:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Penguins
  146. P1 08:13
    SHOT
    Bryan Rust shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  147. P1 07:08
    Warren Foegele won faceoff against Connor Dewar in defensive zone
  148. P1 07:05
    Noel Acciari won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  149. P1 07:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  150. P1 06:56
    SHOT
    Ville Koivunen shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  151. P1 06:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikolas Matinpalo
  152. P1 06:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Stuart Skinner
  153. P1 05:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Novak
  154. P1 04:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Cousins saved by Stuart Skinner
  155. P1 04:28
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Thomas Novak in neutral zone
  156. P1 04:02
    Power play - Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  157. P1 04:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  158. P1 03:41
    Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Connor Dewar in offensive zone
  159. P1 03:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
  160. P1 03:29
    Penalty to Erik Karlsson 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Tyler Kleven)
  161. P1 03:19
    Rickard Rakell credited with hit on Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  162. P1 03:03
    Giveaway by Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  163. P1 02:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  164. P1 02:47
    Jorian Donovan credited with hit on Ben Kindel in defensive zone
  165. P1 01:49
    Giveaway by Anthony Mantha in defensive zone
  166. P1 01:48
    Takeaway by Anthony Mantha in defensive zone
  167. P1 00:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Samuel Girard
  168. P1 00:06
    Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Bryan Rust in neutral zone
  169. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Penguins
STATS
Senators
38Shots on Goal29
31% Faceoff Win % 69%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
15Hits31
15 Shots Blocked 11
18Giveaways18
PenguinsPIT
SenatorsOTT
38Shots on Goal29
31% Faceoff Win % 69%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
15Hits31
15 Shots Blocked 11
18Giveaways18

Penguins vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Penguins vs. Senators
  • Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Penguins 43¢, Senators 58¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Penguins: 43%
  • Senators: 57%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 43%, while the Senators have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Penguins vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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