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Penguins vs. Sabres prediction: Buffalo favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [2/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Buffalo Sabres predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Buffalo Sabres will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at KeyBank Center on Thursday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Sabres a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Penguins.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Penguins vs. Sabres matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Sabres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Penguins and Sabres 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Sabres a 54% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.
Penguins vs. Sabres odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+194) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Total | o6.5 (-125) | u6.5 (+110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Sabres picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Sabres -1.5 | +194 |
| Moneyline | Sabres | -125 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Penguins vs. Sabres player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Sabres?
According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Sabres.
Our projections give Thompson a 45.4% chance of scoring a goal at KeyBank Center, while the star is a 9.3% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 32.8% |
| Sidney Crosby | 29.1% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 27.2% |
| Anthony Mantha | 24.1% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 23.5% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 45.4% |
| Alex Tuch | 36.4% |
| Jason Zucker | 26.6% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 25.4% |
| Noah Ostlund | 24.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 6.1% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 5.2% |
| Sidney Crosby | 5.1% |
| Anthony Mantha | 4.3% |
| Evgeni Malkin | 3.8% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Tage Thompson | 9.3% |
| Alex Tuch | 7.2% |
| Jason Zucker | 4.9% |
| Noah Ostlund | 4.3% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 4.1% |
Penguins vs. Sabres game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Sabres and Penguins at KeyBank Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Buffalo Sabres
- Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: KeyBank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Sabres, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Sabres insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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