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Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [4/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Chicago Cubs will face the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, beginning at 7:40 PM ET.
The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga (1-1, 2.46 ERA) to the mound, up against Jesús Luzardo (1-3, 7.94 ERA) for the Phillies.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Phillies vs. Cubs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's MLB game between the Phillies and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Cubs a 55% chance of defeating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Phillies vs. Cubs odds [4/21/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+164) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -126 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +164 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | -126 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cubs -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB action between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Tuesday, April 21, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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