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Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [4/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Thursday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Edward Cabrera (2-0, 2.38 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, while the Phillies will counter with Cristopher Sánchez (2-2, 1.59 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's Phillies vs. Cubs matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Phillies and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Phillies a 52% chance of defeating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Phillies vs. Cubs odds [4/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+130) | +1.5 (-150) |
| Moneyline | -124 | +106 |
| Total | o9 (-105) | u9 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs +1.5 | -150 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | +106 |
| Total | Under 9 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cubs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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