United States vs. Paraguay prediction revised after 2026 World Cup squad announcements

Following the official roster announcements for the World Cup, our experts have calculated the updated win probabilities and betting picks for the Group D matchup between Paraguay and United States at SoFi Stadium on Friday, June 12.

Dimers Pro users have access to the full analysis below, where we build on our early Paraguay-United States predictions to detail the latest projections and best bets, and have a complete look at the official squads for both teams.

Official World Cup squads: United States and Paraguay

Here are the confirmed rosters for both teams heading into the 2026 World Cup:

United States

Goalkeepers: Chris Brady (Chicago Fire), Matt Freese (New York City FC), Matt Turner (New England Revolution)

Defenders: Max Arfsten (Columbus Crew), Sergiño Dest (PSV Eindhoven), Alex Freeman (Villarreal), Mark McKenzie (Toulouse), Tim Ream (Charlotte FC), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati), Joe Scally (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Auston Trusty (Celtic)

Midfielders: Tyler Adams (AFC Bournemouth), Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders), Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen), Tim Weah (Marseille), Alejandro Zendejas (Club América)

Forwards: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Gio Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach), Folarin Balogun (AS Monaco), Ricardo Pepi (PSV Eindhoven), Haji Wright (Coventry City)

Manager: Mauricio Pochettino

Paraguay

Goalkeepers: Roberto Fernández (Cerro Porteño), Orlando Gill (San Lorenzo), Gastón Olveira (Olimpia)

Defenders: Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras), Júnior Alonso (Atletico Mineiro), Fabián Balbuena (Gremio), Omar Alderete (Sunderland), Juan Caceres (Dynamo Moscow), Jose Canale (Lanus), Alexandro Maidana (Talleres), Gustavo Velázquez (Cerro Porteño)

Midfielders: Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United), Kaku (Al Ain), Andrés Cubas (Vancouver Whitecaps), Ramón Sosa (Palmeiras), Diego Gómez (Brighton & Hove Albion), Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo), Braian Ojeda (Orlando City), Matías Galarza (Atlanta United), Maurício (Palmeiras)

Forwards: Antonio Sanabria (Cremonese), Julio Enciso (Strasbourg), Gabriel Ávalos (Independiente), Alex Arce (Independiente Rivadavia), Isidro Pitta (Red Bull Bragantino), Gustavo Caballero (Portsmouth)

Manager: Gustavo Alfaro

Updated United States vs. Paraguay predictions and picks including most likely exact score

Leveraging our updated data and the confirmed squads, we have re-run the numbers on this fixture. Here are the fine-tuned insights:

• Win probabilities: United States 50.9%, Paraguay 23.3%, Draw 25.8%
• Both teams to score: Yes 47.7%, No 52.3%
• Total goals (2.5): Over 44.7%, Under 55.3%
• Win to nil: United States 30.6%, Paraguay 13.3%
• Double chance (win or draw): United States 76.7%, Paraguay 49.1%
• Most likely final score: 1-0 United States win (13%)

These projections represent the highest probability outcomes based on the confirmed team sheets for United States and Paraguay.

United States vs. Paraguay picks and best bet

We'll be providing 2026 World Cup best bets all tournament long, with the early edge in this one being on Over 2.5 total goals.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge on United States odds also provides the best value for bettors.

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Paraguay vs. United States World Cup details

The FIFA World Cup matchup between United States and Paraguay is scheduled for June 12, 2026, with the two teams starting their tournaments in what is going to be the most-viewed World Cup ever.

• Teams: United States vs. Paraguay
• Tournament stage: Group D
• Date: Friday, June 12, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium
• Tournament odds: Who will win the World Cup?

Conclusion: United States vs. Paraguay prediction

Our World Cup predictions for this matchup suggest that United States to win is the most likely outcome, followed by a draw, with Paraguay to win as the least likely result.

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