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Read Article Paraguay vs. United States 2026 World Cup early prediction with win probabilities
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get early predictions for the upcoming Paraguay vs United States FIFA World Cup game.
Paraguay and United States will meet in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup at SoFi Stadium on Friday, June 12.
The Group D matchup pairs the USA, the main host nation coming off a round-of-16 finish in 2022, with Paraguay, qualified for the World Cup for the first time since 2010.
With 88 days until kickoff, Dimers’ trusted soccer model currently favors United States to win.
For full coverage, see our interactive United States vs. Paraguay page and World Cup predictions hub.
Paraguay vs. United States early predictions
Leveraging trusted machine learning and analysis, we have simulated the Paraguay vs. United States game as part of our World Cup predictions coverage. Here are the latest insights:
- Win probabilities: Paraguay 24.0%, Draw 25.1%, United States 50.9%
- Total goals (2.5): Over 48%, Under 52%
- Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%
- Most likely final score: United States 1-0 Paraguay (11.9%)
As of March 17, 2026, these United States-Paraguay numbers and predictions reflect the latest data and insights available.
Paraguay vs. United States World Cup details
The FIFA World Cup matchup between United States and Paraguay is scheduled for June 12, 2026, with the two teams kicking off their campaigns in what is looking to be the most-viewed World Cup ever.
- Teams: United States vs. Paraguay
- Tournament stage: Group D
- Date: Friday, June 12, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium
- More previews: Latest World Cup news
Paraguay vs. United States current odds
We've researched the best betting odds across America for this Group D game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Paraguay +285, United States -105, Draw +265
- Total goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-104/-118)
Odds subject to change as the game draws nearer.
United States vs. Paraguay picks and best bet
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | United States | -105 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -118 |
We will be providing 2026 World Cup best bets all tournament long, with the early edge on this game being on United States to win.
As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on United States odds also provide the best value for bettors.
United States vs. Paraguay: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 United States win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| United States 1-0 Paraguay | 11.9% |
| United States 1-1 Paraguay | 11.9% |
| United States 2-1 Paraguay | 9.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 50.4% chance of both United States and Paraguay finding the net and a 49.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Conclusion: United States vs. Paraguay prediction
Our World Cup predictions for this matchup suggest that United States to win is the most likely outcome, followed by a draw, with Paraguay to win as the least likely result..
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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