Senators vs. Capitals prediction: Why Ottawa is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [3/18/2026]

The Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Capital One Arena on Wednesday, with puck drop at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Capitals.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's Senators vs. Capitals matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Senators vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Capitals 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 54% chance of beating the Capitals.

According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Senators vs. Capitals odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Senators	Capitals
Puck Line	-1.5 (+190)	+1.5 (-225)
Moneyline	-134	+115
Total	o6 (-110)	u6 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Senators vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Capitals +1.5	-225
Moneyline	Capitals	+115
Total	Under 6	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Capitals to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Senators vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Brady Tkachuk is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Tkachuk a 34.1% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.5% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	34.1%
Tim Stutzle	32.3%
Drake Batherson	28.4%
Dylan Cozens	25.0%
Shane Pinto	23.7%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	28.4%
Dylan Strome	27.7%
Aliaksei Protas	27.6%
Tom Wilson	25.2%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	22.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	6.5%
Drake Batherson	5.9%
Tim Stutzle	5.5%
Dylan Cozens	4.4%
Shane Pinto	4.0%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	5.7%
Aliaksei Protas	5.2%
Dylan Strome	5.2%
Tom Wilson	4.6%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	4.0%

Senators vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's game between the Capitals and Senators at Capital One Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Wednesday, March 18, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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