Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Ottawa is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [2/28/2026]

NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as the Ottawa Senators lock horns with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's Senators vs. Maple Leafs matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL game between the Senators and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Senators a 52% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Senators	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	-1.5 (+190)	+1.5 (-220)
Moneyline	-130	+114
Total	o6.5 (+104)	u6.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-220
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+114
Total	Under 6.5	-118

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 42.8% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	32.1%
Tim Stutzle	31.6%
Drake Batherson	24.7%
Dylan Cozens	23.3%
Shane Pinto	23.1%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	42.8%
William Nylander	33.6%
John Tavares	30.4%
Matthew Knies	26.1%
Bobby McMann	19.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	5.8%
Tim Stutzle	5.7%
Shane Pinto	4.5%
Drake Batherson	4.1%
Dylan Cozens	3.8%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	9.4%
John Tavares	6.1%
William Nylander	6.1%
Matthew Knies	4.3%
Bobby McMann	3.4%

Senators vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Senators at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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