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Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on February 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Senators
5
2
Mar 1, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Mar 1, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Senators
1 4 0 5
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
SenatorsOTT
Win %
100%
0%
Maple LeafsTOR
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
1 4 0 5
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
P3 19:25 Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 18:48 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 18:18 Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 16:53 Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 16:40 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 16:25 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 15:24 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:27 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 11:58 Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 11:58 Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 10:02 Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:49 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 08:41 Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P3 07:33 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 06:04 Shorthanded - Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 05:08 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 03:32 Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 01:41 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 01:31 Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 00:59 Shot missed by Max Domi
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 19:00
Max Domi won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
P3 18:48
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 18:18
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 16:55
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 16:53
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 16:44
Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 16:44
Stoppage - TV timeout
P3 16:44
Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Slashing
P3 16:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 16:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 15:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:42
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot in neutral zone
P3 13:27
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 13:08
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P3 13:08
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 11:58
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 11:58
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 10:27
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 10:27
Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Roughing
P3 10:27
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 10:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:49
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 09:15
William Nylander won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
P3 09:15
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 09:00
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 09:00
Stoppage - Offside
P3 08:41
SHOT
Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P3 08:37
Giveaway by Bobby McMann in neutral zone
P3 08:09
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P3 07:35
Lars Eller won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 07:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 06:04
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 05:10
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 05:08
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 05:04
Stoppage - Icing
P3 04:35
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 03:52
Giveaway by Matthew Knies in neutral zone
P3 03:42
Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P3 03:34
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
P3 03:34
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 03:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 01:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 01:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 01:28
Stoppage - Icing
P3 00:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Domi
P3 00:55
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P3 00:53
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Artem Zub
P3 00:12
SHOT
Dakota Joshua shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:24
John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P2 18:53
SHOT
Senators shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 18:10
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 18:01
Max Domi credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in neutral zone
P2 17:38
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 17:22
Maple Leafs replaced goalie. (Anthony Stolarz)
P2 17:15
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by John Tavares
P2 17:05
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 16:40
SHOT
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P2 16:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Anthony Stolarz
P2 16:06
John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P2 16:06
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Dylan Cozens assisted by Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson
5-2
P2 15:15
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P2 15:15
GOAL
Goal scored by Drake Batherson
4-2
P2 14:53
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Max Domi
P2 14:51
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 14:23
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P2 13:56
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P2 13:51
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 13:05
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P2 13:05
GOAL
Goal scored by Drake Batherson
3-1
P2 12:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 12:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P2 11:38
Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
P2 11:38
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 09:37
Giveaway by Artem Zub in defensive zone
P2 09:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Joseph Woll
P2 08:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
P2 08:23
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
P2 08:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
P2 07:42
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 06:56
Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
P2 05:58
SHOT
Ridly Greig shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P2 05:44
Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Brandon Carlo in offensive zone
P2 05:28
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
P2 04:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P2 03:29
Giveaway by Scott Laughton in defensive zone
P2 03:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
P2 03:02
GOAL
Goal scored by Dylan Cozens assisted by Thomas Chabot and Fabian Zetterlund
2-1
P2 02:52
Takeaway by Fabian Zetterlund in neutral zone
P2 02:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P2 01:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P2 01:30
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 01:14
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 01:14
Stoppage - Player Injury
P2 00:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P1 19:19
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P1 19:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 18:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Michael Amadio
P1 17:49
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
P1 17:43
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P1 17:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P1 17:08
SHOT
Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Joseph Woll
P1 16:31
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
P1 16:31
Stoppage - Icing
P1 15:59
John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P1 15:21
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 15:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P1 14:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Joseph Woll
P1 14:41
SHOT
Power play - Stephen Halliday shot blocked by teammate
P1 14:25
SHOT
Power play - Shane Pinto shot blocked by Matthew Knies
P1 14:18
Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 14:16
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Joseph Woll
P1 13:43
Power play - Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 13:03
Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
P1 12:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
P1 12:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
P1 12:08
Stephen Halliday won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P1 11:18
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P1 11:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 11:03
Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
P1 10:59
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P1 10:59
GOAL
Goal scored by Thomas Chabot
1-1
P1 09:21
SHOT
Shot missed by Michael Amadio
P1 08:06
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 08:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P1 07:11
Ridly Greig won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 05:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
P1 03:52
Giveaway by Max Domi in defensive zone
P1 03:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
P1 03:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dakota Joshua saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 02:52
Lars Eller won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P1 02:43
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P1 02:39
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 02:19
SHOT
Power play - Bobby McMann shot blocked by teammate
P1 01:24
Power play - Takeaway by John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 00:50
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P1 00:11
Dylan Cozens credited with hit on John Tavares in offensive zone
P1 00:05
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
STATS
Maple Leafs
40Shots on Goal23
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
15Penalty Infraction Mins27
27Hits24
6Shots Blocked15
14Giveaways14
SenatorsOTT
Maple LeafsTOR
40Shots on Goal23
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
15Penalty Infraction Mins27
27Hits24
6Shots Blocked15
14Giveaways14

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Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators -130, Maple Leafs +118

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 53%
  • Maple Leafs: 47%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 53%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 47%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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