Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on February 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Senators
5
2
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123T
Senators
1 4 0 5
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Senators
    100%
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
1 4 0 5
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 2
P3 19:25 Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 18:48 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 18:18 Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 16:53 Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 16:40 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 16:25 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 15:24 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:27 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 11:58 Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 11:58 Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 10:02 Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:49 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 08:41 Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P3 07:33 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 06:04 Shorthanded - Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 05:08 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 03:32 Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 01:41 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 01:31 Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 00:59 Shot missed by Max Domi
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  3. P3 19:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
  4. P3 19:00
    Max Domi won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
  5. P3 18:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  6. P3 18:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  7. P3 16:55
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  8. P3 16:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Anthony Stolarz
  9. P3 16:44
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  10. P3 16:44
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  11. P3 16:44
    Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Slashing
  12. P3 16:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark
  13. P3 16:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
  14. P3 15:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
  15. P3 13:42
    Giveaway by Thomas Chabot in neutral zone
  16. P3 13:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  17. P3 13:08
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  18. P3 13:08
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  19. P3 11:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
  20. P3 11:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark
  21. P3 10:27
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  22. P3 10:27
    Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Roughing
  23. P3 10:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  24. P3 10:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Anthony Stolarz
  25. P3 09:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  26. P3 09:15
    William Nylander won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
  27. P3 09:15
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  28. P3 09:00
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  29. P3 09:00
    Stoppage - Offside
  30. P3 08:41
    SHOT
    Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  31. P3 08:37
    Giveaway by Bobby McMann in neutral zone
  32. P3 08:09
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  33. P3 07:35
    Lars Eller won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  34. P3 07:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark
  35. P3 06:04
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by William Nylander
  36. P3 05:10
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  37. P3 05:08
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
  38. P3 05:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  39. P3 04:35
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  40. P3 03:52
    Giveaway by Matthew Knies in neutral zone
  41. P3 03:42
    Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  42. P3 03:34
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  43. P3 03:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  44. P3 03:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz
  45. P3 01:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Linus Ullmark
  46. P3 01:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Linus Ullmark
  47. P3 01:28
    Stoppage - Icing
  48. P3 00:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Max Domi
  49. P3 00:55
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  50. P3 00:53
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Artem Zub
  51. P3 00:12
    SHOT
    Dakota Joshua shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  52. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  53. P2 19:24
    John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  54. P2 18:53
    SHOT
    Senators shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  55. P2 18:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  56. P2 18:01
    Max Domi credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in neutral zone
  57. P2 17:38
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  58. P2 17:22
    Maple Leafs replaced goalie. (Anthony Stolarz)
  59. P2 17:15
    SHOT
    Tim Stutzle shot blocked by John Tavares
  60. P2 17:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Anthony Stolarz
  61. P2 16:40
    SHOT
    Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  62. P2 16:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Anthony Stolarz
  63. P2 16:06
    John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  64. P2 16:06
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Dylan Cozens assisted by Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson
    5-2
  65. P2 15:15
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  66. P2 15:15
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Drake Batherson
    4-2
  67. P2 14:53
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Max Domi
  68. P2 14:51
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  69. P2 14:23
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  70. P2 13:56
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  71. P2 13:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Linus Ullmark
  72. P2 13:05
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  73. P2 13:05
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Drake Batherson
    3-1
  74. P2 12:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Joseph Woll
  75. P2 12:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  76. P2 11:38
    Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  77. P2 11:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  78. P2 09:37
    Giveaway by Artem Zub in defensive zone
  79. P2 09:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Joseph Woll
  80. P2 08:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  81. P2 08:23
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  82. P2 08:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
  83. P2 07:42
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  84. P2 06:56
    Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  85. P2 05:58
    SHOT
    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  86. P2 05:44
    Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Brandon Carlo in offensive zone
  87. P2 05:28
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  88. P2 04:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  89. P2 03:29
    Giveaway by Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  90. P2 03:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Joseph Woll
  91. P2 03:02
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Dylan Cozens assisted by Thomas Chabot and Fabian Zetterlund
    2-1
  92. P2 02:52
    Takeaway by Fabian Zetterlund in neutral zone
  93. P2 02:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
  94. P2 01:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  95. P2 01:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark
  96. P2 01:14
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  97. P2 01:14
    Stoppage - Player Injury
  98. P2 00:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Joseph Woll
  99. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  100. P1 19:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
  101. P1 19:19
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  102. P1 19:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  103. P1 18:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Amadio
  104. P1 17:49
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
  105. P1 17:43
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  106. P1 17:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  107. P1 17:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Joseph Woll
  108. P1 16:31
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone
  109. P1 16:31
    Stoppage - Icing
  110. P1 15:59
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  111. P1 15:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  112. P1 15:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
  113. P1 14:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Stephen Halliday saved by Joseph Woll
  114. P1 14:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Stephen Halliday shot blocked by teammate
  115. P1 14:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shane Pinto shot blocked by Matthew Knies
  116. P1 14:18
    Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  117. P1 14:16
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Joseph Woll
  118. P1 13:43
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  119. P1 13:03
    Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  120. P1 12:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Joseph Woll
  121. P1 12:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
  122. P1 12:08
    Stephen Halliday won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  123. P1 11:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  124. P1 11:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Joseph Woll
  125. P1 11:03
    Senators won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  126. P1 10:59
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  127. P1 10:59
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Thomas Chabot
    1-1
  128. P1 09:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Amadio
  129. P1 08:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  130. P1 08:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  131. P1 07:11
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  132. P1 05:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
  133. P1 03:52
    Giveaway by Max Domi in defensive zone
  134. P1 03:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
  135. P1 03:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dakota Joshua saved by Linus Ullmark
  136. P1 02:52
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  137. P1 02:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  138. P1 02:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  139. P1 02:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Bobby McMann shot blocked by teammate
  140. P1 01:24
    Power play - Takeaway by John Tavares in defensive zone
  141. P1 00:50
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  142. P1 00:11
    Dylan Cozens credited with hit on John Tavares in offensive zone
  143. P1 00:05
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  144. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
STATS
Maple Leafs
40Shots on Goal23
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
15Penalty Infraction Mins27
27Hits24
6 Shots Blocked 15
14Giveaways14
SenatorsOTT
Maple LeafsTOR
40Shots on Goal23
49% Faceoff Win % 51%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
15Penalty Infraction Mins27
27Hits24
6 Shots Blocked 15
14Giveaways14

Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators -130, Maple Leafs +118

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 53%
  • Maple Leafs: 47%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 53%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 47%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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