Senators vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/28/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Ottawa Senators in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Senators vs. Lightning game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Senators vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 57% chance of beating the Senators.

According to our model, the Senators (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Senators vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Senators	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-210)	-1.5 (+180)
Moneyline	+115	-134
Total	o6 (-118)	u6 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Senators vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+180
Moneyline	Lightning	-134
Total	Under 6	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Senators vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Kucherov a 38.0% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 7.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	30.7%
Tim Stutzle	29.8%
Drake Batherson	25.4%
Dylan Cozens	23.6%
Shane Pinto	23.4%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	38.0%
Jake Guentzel	37.1%
Brayden Point	36.8%
Brandon Hagel	30.4%
Anthony Cirelli	22.7%

First goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	5.8%
Tim Stutzle	5.6%
Drake Batherson	4.8%
Dylan Cozens	4.3%
Shane Pinto	4.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	8.2%
Nikita Kucherov	7.5%
Brayden Point	6.8%
Brandon Hagel	5.8%
Anthony Cirelli	4.5%

Senators vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Lightning and Senators at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Senators on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.

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