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Senators vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Lightning NHL game on March 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Senators
2
4
Mar 28, 5PM Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Mar 28, 5PM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Senators
2 0 0 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
SenatorsOTT
Win %
0%
100%
LightningTB
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
2 0 0 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
P3 19:00 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 18:12 Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:12 Shot on goal by Lightning saved by James Reimer
P3 17:48 Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Corey Perry and Emil Lilleberg
P3 16:42 Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
P3 15:58 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 14:21 Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 13:13 Shot missed by Lassi Thomson
P3 13:05 Lassi Thomson shot blocked by teammate
P3 12:20 Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 12:09 Brayden Point shot blocked by Carter Yakemchuk
P3 12:04 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 10:16 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:42 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:07 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 07:50 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
P3 07:50 Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 07:06 Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:00
Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P3 19:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 18:24
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P3 18:14
Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P3 18:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lightning saved by James Reimer
P3 17:48
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P3 17:48
GOAL
Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Corey Perry and Emil Lilleberg
2-4
P3 16:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
P3 16:32
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P3 16:32
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 15:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 14:24
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 14:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:12
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P3 13:33
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 13:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Lassi Thomson
P3 13:05
SHOT
Lassi Thomson shot blocked by teammate
P3 12:20
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 12:09
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Carter Yakemchuk
P3 12:04
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 11:18
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 11:18
Stoppage - Icing
P3 10:56
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 10:56
Stoppage - Icing
P3 10:19
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P3 10:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 10:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:45
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P3 09:42
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 09:25
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
P3 08:51
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P3 08:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 07:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
P3 07:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 07:36
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
P3 07:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:15
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 05:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P3 04:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 04:28
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by teammate
P3 03:53
Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
P3 03:53
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 03:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
P3 02:19
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
P3 02:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by James Reimer
P3 01:42
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P3 01:02
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:55
SHOT
Power play - J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
P2 19:23
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P2 19:23
Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Misconduct
P2 18:36
Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
P2 17:52
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P2 17:52
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference
P2 17:16
SHOT
Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
P2 16:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P2 16:04
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P2 16:04
Stoppage - Offside
P2 15:17
Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P2 14:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
P2 13:55
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 13:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by James Reimer
P2 13:29
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by James Reimer
P2 13:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P2 12:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 12:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
P2 12:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Ridly Greig
P2 11:38
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
P2 11:30
SHOT
Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Artem Zub
P2 11:23
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ridly Greig
P2 11:15
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 11:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 11:01
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 10:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
P2 10:38
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 10:38
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P2 10:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 09:56
SHOT
Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Lassi Thomson
P2 09:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by James Reimer
P2 08:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 08:09
Penalty to Dylan Cozens 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Brandon Hagel)
P2 08:09
Penalty to Carter Yakemchuk 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Erik Cernak)
P2 08:09
Senators won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
P2 08:01
SHOT
Power play - Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
P2 07:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Drake Batherson
P2 07:28
Nick Cousins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 07:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Brayden Point
P2 06:43
Jake Guentzel credited with hit on Nick Cousins in neutral zone
P2 06:38
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P2 06:02
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P2 06:02
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 05:39
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
P2 05:39
Stoppage - Icing
P2 05:14
Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
P2 05:13
SHOT
Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P2 03:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Corey Perry
P2 03:37
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P2 03:37
GOAL
Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Charle-Edouard D'Astous and Emil Lilleberg
2-1
P2 03:35
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Artem Zub
P2 02:58
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P2 01:05
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in offensive zone
P2 00:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by James Reimer
P2 00:00
Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
P1 18:54
Power play - Brandon Hagel credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone
P1 18:14
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P1 17:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Cousins saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 17:31
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P1 17:31
Stoppage - Icing
P1 17:25
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
P1 16:16
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P1 15:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by James Reimer
P1 15:57
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P1 15:39
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 15:39
Stoppage
P1 15:19
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
P1 14:57
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
P1 14:56
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P1 14:22
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P1 14:22
Stoppage
P1 13:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P1 12:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 12:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
P1 12:20
SHOT
Shot missed by J.J. Moser
P1 12:19
Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
P1 12:19
Stoppage
P1 11:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 10:48
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 10:47
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
P1 09:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P1 09:43
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
P1 09:09
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P1 08:44
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Artem Zub
P1 08:08
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P1 08:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by James Reimer
P1 08:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
P1 06:25
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
P1 05:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
P1 05:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 04:25
Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
P1 04:22
SHOT
Nick Cousins shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P1 04:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 03:15
Tim Stutzle credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
P1 03:12
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
P1 02:14
Stoppage - Icing
P1 01:50
Scott Sabourin credited with hit on Lassi Thomson in offensive zone
P1 01:33
Lars Eller won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P1 01:33
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 00:29
Drake Batherson credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
P1 00:29
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Claude Giroux
P1 00:05
Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stats
Senators
STATS
Lightning
28Shots on Goal27
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
10Penalty Infraction Mins6
23Hits21
25Shots Blocked12
18Giveaways15
SenatorsOTT
LightningTB
28Shots on Goal27
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
10Penalty Infraction Mins6
23Hits21
25Shots Blocked12
18Giveaways15

Game Prediction Article

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Senators vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators +128, Lightning -129

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 43%
  • Lightning: 57%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 43%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Senators in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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