Penguins vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [10/7/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL game between the Penguins and Capitals, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 57.3% chance of beating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 64.2% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 51.7% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-175) / Capitals -1.5 (+154)
• Moneyline: Penguins +140, Capitals -160
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ -175 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Penguins @ +140 via ESPN BET
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -105 via ESPN BET

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Penguins vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Sidney Crosby is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Crosby a 33.9% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 33.9% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 28.3% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 27.7% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 26.6% probability
• Bryan Rust: 21.6% probability

Washington Capitals

• Alex Tuch: 30.2% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 30.0% probability
• Tom Wilson: 29.1% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 27.6% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 25.9% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 6.2% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 5.5% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 5.2% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 4.9% probability
• Bryan Rust: 3.6% probability

Washington Capitals

• Tom Wilson: 5.8% probability
• Alex Tuch: 5.4% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 5.3% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 5.1% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 5.0% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Wednesday's action between the Capitals and Penguins at Capital One Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 57.3% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.