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Senators vs. Oilers prediction: Why Edmonton is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Edmonton Oilers will square off with the Ottawa Senators, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Rogers Place on Tuesday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Oilers a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Senators.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's Senators vs. Oilers matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Senators vs. Oilers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Oilers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Oilers a 53% chance of beating the Senators.
According to our model, the Senators (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Senators vs. Oilers odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Senators | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+194) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -122 |
| Total | o6.5 (-125) | u6.5 (+105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Senators vs. Oilers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Senators +1.5 | -220 |
| Moneyline | Oilers | -122 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +105 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Senators vs. Oilers player props
Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Oilers?
According to our model, Leon Draisaitl is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Oilers.
Our projections give Draisaitl a 44.7% chance of scoring a goal at Rogers Place, while the star is a 9.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 31.9% |
| Tim Stutzle | 28.9% |
| Drake Batherson | 27.3% |
| Dylan Cozens | 25.8% |
| Shane Pinto | 23.1% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 44.7% |
| Zach Hyman | 40.4% |
| Connor McDavid | 36.5% |
| Jack Roslovic | 21.2% |
| Evan Bouchard | 19.8% |
First goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 5.5% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.0% |
| Tim Stutzle | 4.7% |
| Dylan Cozens | 4.3% |
| Shane Pinto | 3.9% |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 9.7% |
| Zach Hyman | 7.8% |
| Connor McDavid | 6.7% |
| Jack Roslovic | 3.7% |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3.4% |
Senators vs. Oilers game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's action between the Oilers and Senators at Rogers Place is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Place
Conclusion
We predict the Oilers, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Senators on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Oilers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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