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Senators vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Oilers NHL game on March 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
4
5
Mar 4, 2AM Rogers Place
Mar 4, 2AM Rogers Place
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senators | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Oilers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senators | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Oilers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
OT1 01:32 Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
OT1 01:14 Power play - Connor McDavid shot blocked by Artem Zub
OT1 00:47 Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 19:47 Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
P3 19:11 Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
P3 18:55 Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Connor Ingram
P3 17:46 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 17:43 Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
P3 15:35 Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
P3 15:28 Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 14:05 Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:01 Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Drake Batherson
P3 11:08 Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 09:38 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Nick Jensen
P3 08:06 Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Lars Eller
P3 07:00 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Connor Ingram
P3 06:51 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Zach Hyman
P3 05:15 Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 04:55 Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 04:19 Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
End of 1st OT.
Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
SHOT
Power play - Connor McDavid shot blocked by Artem Zub
Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
End of 3rd Period.
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Connor Ingram
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
SHOT
Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
Connor McDavid credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
Stoppage - Hand Pass - TV timeout
Giveaway by Zach Hyman in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Drake Batherson
Adam Henrique won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Nick Jensen
SHOT
Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Lars Eller
Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Connor Ingram
SHOT
Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Zach Hyman
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
SHOT
Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Michael Amadio
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Connor Ingram
Josh Samanski won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
Penalty to Shane Pinto 2 minutes for Delay of Game
SHOT
Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Shane Pinto
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
Josh Samanski credited with hit on Nick Cousins in defensive zone
SHOT
Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
Giveaway by Connor McDavid in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor McDavid
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ty Emberson saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Artem Zub
Shorthanded - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shorthanded - Michael Amadio shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
Senators won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Connor Ingram
Giveaway by Shane Pinto in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Connor Ingram
Trent Frederic credited with hit on Jordan Spence in defensive zone
Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Vasily Podkolzin in offensive zone
Trent Frederic won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Hyman saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot missed by Claude Giroux
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Stephen Halliday
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Connor Ingram
Adam Henrique won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Drake Batherson
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Leon Draisaitl
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Connor Ingram
SHOT
Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Connor Ingram
SHOT
Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
Vasily Podkolzin credited with hit on Nick Jensen in offensive zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Artem Zub
SHOT
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Shane Pinto
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Ridly Greig
SHOT
Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
SHOT
Josh Samanski shot blocked by Jordan Spence
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins credited with hit on Artem Zub in offensive zone
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven in defensive zone
Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
SHOT
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
Senators won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Stephen Halliday shot blocked by Jake Walman
Shorthanded - Darnell Nurse credited with hit on Fabian Zetterlund in defensive zone
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Ridly Greig credited with hit on Mattias Ekholm in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Connor Ingram
Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
Josh Samanski won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Linus Ullmark
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
Stoppage - Icing
Connor McDavid won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Connor Ingram
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Connor Ingram
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Zach Hyman
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Linus Ullmark
Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 21 | Shots on Goal | 37 | |||
| 32% | Faceoff Win % | 68% | |||
| 3/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 11 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 11 | |||
| 14 | Hits | 24 | |||
| 9 | Shots Blocked | 14 | |||
| 15 | Giveaways | 21 |
| |
|---|
| 21 | Shots on Goal | 37 | |||
| 32% | Faceoff Win % | 68% | |||
| 3/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/2 | |||
| 11 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 11 | |||
| 14 | Hits | 24 | |||
| 9 | Shots Blocked | 14 | |||
| 15 | Giveaways | 21 |
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Senators vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Senators vs. Oilers
- Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rogers Place
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Oilers favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Senators +100, Oilers -118
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Senators: 47%
- Oilers: 53%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 47%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Oilers are more likely to beat the Senators in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Senators vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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