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Senators vs. Flames prediction: Why Ottawa is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Scotiabank Saddledome on Thursday, with puck drop at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Senators as the most likely winner of the Senators vs. Flames game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Senators vs. Flames prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Senators and Flames 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Senators a 59% chance of beating the Flames.
According to our model, the Flames (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Senators vs. Flames odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Senators | Flames |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-175) |
| Moneyline | -180 | +152 |
| Total | o5.5 (-110) | u5.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Senators vs. Flames picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Flames +1.5 | -175 |
| Moneyline | Flames | +152 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Flames to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Senators vs. Flames player props
Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Flames?
According to our model, Brady Tkachuk is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Flames.
Our projections give Tkachuk a 33.9% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Saddledome, while the star is a 6.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 33.9% |
| Drake Batherson | 29.5% |
| Tim Stutzle | 28.8% |
| Dylan Cozens | 28.4% |
| Shane Pinto | 24.6% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 29.4% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 23.9% |
| Matthew Coronato | 21.8% |
| Morgan Frost | 20.4% |
| Adam Klapka | 20.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 6.9% |
| Tim Stutzle | 5.7% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.6% |
| Dylan Cozens | 5.2% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.6% |
Calgary Flames
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri | 6.0% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 4.7% |
| Matthew Coronato | 4.3% |
| Matvei Gridin | 4.1% |
| Connor Zary | 3.8% |
Senators vs. Flames game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Flames and Senators at Scotiabank Saddledome is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Calgary Flames
- Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Flames on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Flames insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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