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Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [1/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns predictions for NBA Sunday.
The Phoenix Suns will face the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Suns game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature stars like Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie, while the Thunder will be led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Suns 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 77% chance of defeating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 119-110.
According to our model, the Suns (+10.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 229.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Suns odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 (-105) | +10.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -395 | +340 |
| Total | o229.5 (-110) | u229.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Suns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Suns +10.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Suns | +340 |
| Total | Under 229.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Suns to win.
Thunder vs. Suns player props
Looking for Thunder vs. Suns NBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Devin Booker is projected to have 24 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists for the Suns.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 52 |
| Jalen Williams | 19 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 38 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 36 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
Suns prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 24 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 44 |
| Dillon Brooks | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| C. Gillespie | 13 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| Mark Williams | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 28 |
| Royce O'Neale | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
Thunder vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Suns and Thunder at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Suns on Sunday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Suns insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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