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Read Article Thunder vs. Lakers prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 4 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers predictions for NBA Playoffs Monday.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet in Game 4 of their NBA Playoffs series at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, starting at 10:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Lakers lineup will feature players like LeBron James, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.
Luka Doncic will miss the game though with the Slovenian star out for this one.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Lakers prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Thunder and Lakers, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 83% chance of beating the Lakers in Game 4 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 113-101.
According to our model, the Lakers (+12.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 214.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Lakers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -12.5 (-105) | +12.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -575 | +450 |
| Total | o214.5 (-110) | u214.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Lakers picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +12.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Lakers | +450 |
| Total | Under 214.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +12.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Monday's Thunder vs. Lakers game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 29 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, while LeBron James is projected to have 22 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists for the Lakers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 29 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 51 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 38 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 31 |
| I. Hartenstein | 10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 33 |
| Cason Wallace | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
Lakers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lakers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 22 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 48 |
| Austin Reaves | 21 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| Rui Hachimura | 15 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 26 |
| Marcus Smart | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 26 |
| Luke Kennard | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
Thunder vs. Lakers Game 4 updates and essential details
Monday's Game 4 between the Lakers and Thunder in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 10:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
- Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Thunder and Lakers, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which spans four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers in Monday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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