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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Monday, May 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, May 11, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 14.2% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.1% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.9% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 12.9% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 10.5% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 10.2% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 10.2% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 9.8% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 9.6% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 9.6% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.2% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Thunder | 8.2% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 3.8% | +1000 | 12.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.6% | +700 | 14.1% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.0% | +1300 | 8.1% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 0.8% | +1400 | 7.5% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.1% | +550 | 15.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onMonday, May 11, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham lead our first basket projections, while Tobias Harris shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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