North Texas vs. San Diego State prediction: North Texas favored to win New Mexico Bowl [2025]

San Diego State will square off with the favored North Texas in the 2025 New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium on Saturday, beginning at 5:45 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced college football model predicts North Texas as the most likely winner of the North Texas vs. San Diego State game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

New Mexico Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of the 2025 New Mexico Bowl 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives North Texas a 66% chance of defeating San Diego State. Our predicted final score has North Texas winning 30-23.

According to our model, North Texas (-6) has a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 53.5 points has a 57% chance of staying under.

New Mexico Bowl odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

North Texas vs. San Diego State picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: