May 23, 2026
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Read Article St George Illawarra Dragons vs. New Zealand Warriors prediction: Warriors favored to win Saturday's NRL Round 12 matchup [5/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for NRL Saturday.
The St George Illawarra Dragons and New Zealand Warriors are scheduled to meet in the National Rugby League (NRL) at Jubilee Park on Saturday, starting at 3:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NRL model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Dragons game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Dragons vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win Round 12 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NRL game between the Warriors and Dragons, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Warriors an 82% chance of beating the Dragons.
According to our model, the Warriors (-12.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 50.5 points has a 62% chance of staying under.
Warriors vs. St George odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -400 | +290 |
| Line (Spread) | -12.5 (-105) | +12.5 (-120) |
| Total | o50.5 (-115) | u50.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Warriors vs. Dragons picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors -12.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | bet_rivers_in-400 |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 |
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 50.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Dragons vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rugby league matchup between the Dragons and Warriors at Jubilee Park is scheduled to begin at 3:30 AM ET.
- Who: New Zealand Warriors vs. St George Illawarra Dragons
- Date: Saturday, May 23, 2026
- Time: 3:30 AM ET/12:30AM PT
- Venue: Jubilee Park
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat the Dragons in Saturday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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