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Newcastle Knights vs. New Zealand Warriors prediction: Warriors favored to win Saturday's NRL Round 3 matchup [3/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for NRL Saturday.
The Newcastle Knights will take on the favored New Zealand Warriors in National Rugby League (NRL) action at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday, commencing at 12:00 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NRL model predicts the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Knights game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Knights vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win Round 3 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NRL game between the Warriors and Knights 10,000 times as part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Warriors a 74% chance of defeating the Knights.
According to our model, the Warriors (-7.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 58% chance of staying under.
Warriors vs. Knights odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -233 | +175 |
| Line (Spread) | -7.5 (-120) | +7.5 (-105) |
| Total | o49.5 (-114) | u49.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors -7.5 | bet_rivers_in-120 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | bet_rivers_in-233 |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -112 |
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 49.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Knights vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rugby league action between the Knights and Warriors at McDonald Jones Stadium is scheduled to begin at 12:00 AM ET.
- Who: New Zealand Warriors vs. Newcastle Knights
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
- Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Knights on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Warriors vs. Knights insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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