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Melbourne Storm vs. New Zealand Warriors prediction: Storm favored to win Saturday's NRL Round 6 matchup [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors predictions for NRL Saturday.
The Melbourne Storm will square off with the New Zealand Warriors in National Rugby League (NRL) action at AAMI Park on Saturday, starting at 5:35 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NRL model predicts the Storm as the most likely winner of the Warriors vs. Storm game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Storm vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win Round 6 game?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NRL matchup between the Warriors and Storm, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Storm a 76% chance of beating the Warriors.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Warriors and Storm each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 46.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.
Warriors vs. Storm odds
We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Warriors | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +235 | -312 |
| Line (Spread) | +10.5 (-115) | -10.5 (-115) |
| Total | o46.5 (-115) | u46.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Warriors vs. Storm picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Storm -10.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Storm | bet_rivers_in-312 |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -115 |
According to our best NRL bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 46.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Storm vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rugby league action between the Storm and Warriors at AAMI Park is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: New Zealand Warriors vs. Melbourne Storm
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: AAMI Park
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Storm, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors in Saturday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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