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Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Yankees favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [4/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will lock horns in MLB action at Fenway Park on Thursday, starting at 6:10 PM ET.
The Red Sox will start Payton Tolle (0-0, 0.00 ERA), pitting him against Cam Schlittler (2-1, 1.95 ERA) for the Yankees.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Yankees as the most likely winner of the Yankees vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Yankees a 55% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds [4/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+110) | +1.5 (-130) |
| Moneyline | -149 | +130 |
| Total | o8.5 (-110) | u8.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox +1.5 | -130 |
| Moneyline | Red Sox | +130 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Red Sox to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Red Sox and Yankees at Fenway Park is scheduled to begin at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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