Mets vs. Giants prediction: San Francisco favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/5/2026]

The San Francisco Giants will square off with the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Oracle Park on Sunday, beginning at 4:05 PM ET.

Logan Webb (1-1, 7.36 ERA) will start on the mound for the Giants, pitting him against Kodai Senga (0-1, 3.00 ERA) for the Mets.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Giants a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Mets.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's Mets vs. Giants matchup, including best bets and picks.

Mets vs. Giants prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Giants, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Giants a 53% chance of defeating the Mets.

According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the run line, while the 7-run over/under has a 57% chance of going over.

Mets vs. Giants odds [4/5/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mets vs. Giants picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: