Pelicans vs. Heat prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [1/4/2026]

The Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Sunday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Heat as the most likely winner of the Pelicans vs. Heat game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature players like Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins, while the Pelicans will rely on Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy and Jordan Poole.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Pelicans vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Pelicans and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Heat a 72% chance of beating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 125-118.

According to our model, the Pelicans (+7.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the 247.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.

Pelicans vs. Heat odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Pelicans	Heat
Spread	+7.5 (-102)	-7.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+250	-298
Total	o247.5 (-108)	u247.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pelicans vs. Heat picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Pelicans +7.5	-102
Moneyline	Heat	-298
Total	Under 247.5	-112

According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Pelicans +7.5 at the spread.

Pelicans vs. Heat player props

NBA player props are a common way to wager on the New Orleans vs. Miami game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.

Zion Williamson is expected to lead the Pelicans with 25 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, while Norman Powell is projected to have 24 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Heat.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Pelicans prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Pelicans are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Zion Williamson	25	7	4	0	45
Trey Murphy	21	5	4	3	40
Jordan Poole	16	2	4	3	30
Jeremiah Fears	13	4	3	1	27
Derik Queen	13	7	4	0	33

Heat prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Norman Powell	24	3	3	3	37
Tyler Herro	21	4	5	2	37
Andrew Wiggins	19	5	3	2	37
Bam Adebayo	18	10	4	2	42
Kel'el Ware	13	11	1	1	33

Pelicans vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's action between the Heat and Pelicans at Kaseya Center is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Kaseya Center

Conclusion

We predict the Heat, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans on Sunday, with Zion Williamson projected for a game-high 45 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pelicans vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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