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NBA championship odds: Oklahoma City Thunder lead the way in latest NBA Finals predictions [1/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get the latest NBA title odds sourced and predictions from our experts.
The latest NBA championship odds have been updated as of January 6, 2026, which includes every team's up-to-date NBA title chances.
Using our powerful predictive analytics model, this article will provide insights into the probabiliuy of each NBA team winning the title this season.
According to Dimers' in-house NBA championship odds, the team with the highest probability of winning the NBA title is the Oklahoma City Thunder, followed by the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs.
Current odds to win NBA championship [1/6/2026]
After simulating the remainder of the regular season and playoffs, our supercomputer has identified the Thunder as the team most likely to become NBA champions, with a probability of 42.3%.
The top five contenders for the NBA championship also include the Nuggets, Spurs, Knicks, and Rockets.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Dimers Probability: 42.3%
- Championship Odds: +110
The Thunder are currently projected to have a 42.3% chance of winning the 2025/26 NBA title, with the most favorable odds of +110 available at BetMGM.
Additionally, Oklahoma City is rated with a 50.1% chance of winning the Western Conference, and DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best odds of -700 for this outcome.
2. Denver Nuggets
- Dimers Probability: 10.2%
- Championship Odds: +900
The Nuggets have a 10.2% chance of clinching the title, and the most favorable odds of +900 can be found at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Furthermore, Denver is rated with a 13.5% chance of winning the Western Conference, and BetMGM offers the best odds of +900 for this scenario.
As well as presenting these odds and probabilities on the Nuggets to win the title, Dimers produces NBA player props throughout the season, including points, rebounds and assists projections for Nikola Jokic.
3. San Antonio Spurs
- Dimers Probability: 6.9%
- Championship Odds: +1400
The Spurs are projected to have a 6.9% chance of securing the 2025/26 NBA title, and you can find the most favorable odds of +1400 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
San Antonio, lead by Victor Wembanyama, is rated with a 9.9% chance of winning the Western Conference, and FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best odds of +270 for this outcome.
Speaking of Victor Wembanyama, make sure you check out our NBA betting trends, where you can find just how often players such as the Spurs star are hitting their prop lines.
4. New York Knicks
- Dimers Probability: 6.1%
- Championship Odds: +1300
The Knicks are projected to have the next best chance of winning the 2025/26 NBA title, and the most favorable odds of +1300 can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Looking at the conference probabilities, New York is rated with a 23.7% chance of winning the Eastern Conference, and DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best odds of +900 for this scenario.
Wondering how Jalen Brunson and the Knicks will fare in their next game? Our NBA predictions page has probabilities for the spread, moneyline and over/under for each and every game on the slate.
5. Houston Rockets
- Dimers Probability: 5.5%
- Championship Odds: +1300
The Rockets are projected to have the fifth best chance of securing the title, with the most favorable odds of +1300 currently available at BetMGM.
Additionally, Houston is rated with a 8.5% chance of winning the Western Conference, and BetMGM offers the best odds of +600 for this outcome.
NBA title odds as of January 6, 2026
Here, we provide you with the full list of teams in order of most likely to least likely to win the title this season.
| Team | Title Probability | Championship Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder | 42.3% | +110 |
| Nuggets | 10.2% | +900 |
| Spurs | 6.9% | +1400 |
| Knicks | 6.1% | +1300 |
| Rockets | 5.5% | +1300 |
| Celtics | 3.9% | +2500 |
| Pistons | 3.7% | +2700 |
| Lakers | 3.6% | +3000 |
| Cavaliers | 3.5% | +3000 |
| Timberwolves | 2.7% | +4000 |
| Warriors | 1.9% | +4000 |
| Magic | 1.8% | +4000 |
| Heat | 1.3% | +10000 |
| Suns | 0.8% | +50000 |
| Bucks | 0.8% | +20000 |
| Nets | 0.8% | +200000 |
| 76ers | 0.7% | +6600 |
| Grizzlies | 0.7% | +200000 |
| Hawks | 0.7% | +10000 |
| Wizards | 0.6% | +200000 |
| Kings | 0.5% | +200000 |
| Clippers | 0.4% | +14000 |
| Jazz | 0.3% | +200000 |
| Raptors | 0.2% | +18000 |
NBA teams with a 0% chance of winning the championship
The teams on the list above are the ones that our predictive model thinks have at least a 0.1% chance of winning the NBA title this season. The teams below are either completely out of the running or have won none of our model's thousands of simulations of the rest of the season.
- Dallas Mavericks
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Charlotte Hornets
- Chicago Bulls
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Indiana Pacers
Check out the most recent odds to win the NBA championship if you want to bet on any of the teams that are still in the running.
Make informed NBA futures betting decisions today - 1/6/2026
At Dimers, we take the responsibility of providing NBA futures picks very seriously, especially when considering the implications of gambling and the potential impact on our users' financial well-being and quality of life.
While we strive to provide accurate and insightful betting advice, we always recommend that our users exercise caution and conduct their own research before using our futures picks or any other betting advice, as ultimately, it's up to each individual to make informed decisions that align with their personal values and goals. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publishing.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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