NBA Props and Parlay Picks: One bet to make on each team in Friday's Play-In games

1. Paolo Banchero (Magic) over 22.5 points (-130)

Game: Magic vs. Hornets

Tip: 7:30 PM ET

We start off with our top-projected scorer for the Magic as they look to avoid elimination.

Paolo Banchero went on a heater in March, ripping off six games over 30 points and clearing this line in 10 of 16 games, and then in 3 of his final 7 games in April, though two of those udners were blowouts, unlikely to be the case tonight. Most of his unders in that long stretch have come on uncharacteristic shooting nights for Banchero or due to low volume.

Volume shouldn't be an issue in such a big game, and if he sticks to his usual game rather than shooting a high number of threes, he should find a rhythm, as signaled by our projection of 23.3 points.

Charlotte has been a top defensive unit since the All-Star Break but allowed three players to score 23+ in their first play-in game, with only Tyler Herro needing OT to go over.

2. Miles Bridges (Hornets) over 6.5 rebounds (+122)

Game: Magic vs. Hornets

Tip: 7:30 PM ET

We move to the other side of this matchup with a player projected for the third-most rebounds in this game.

The second-highest rebounder on the Hornets this season, Miles Bridges projects for 6.9 rebounds in our simulations, tied with Wendell Carter of the Magic. Bridges hit this in 4 of his L5 games, tallying 8+ in each of those. The Hornets allowed the second fewest rebounds this season and should win the battle on the glass.

Additionally, Hornets big man Moussa Diabate is listed as questionable with a hip injury. As their rebounds leader and top-projected in this game, Bridges could be in line for a few more board chances.

Bettors looking for the best value can actually take Bridges for over 7.5 rebounds - while we project him slightly under that number, a 46.3% probability to clear that alternate line shows big value at +170 odds.

3. Stephen Curry (Warriors) over 4.5 threes (+124)

Game: Warriors vs. Suns

Tip: 10:00 PM ET

We move to the late game and target none other than the all-time three-point leader in the NBA to do just that tonight.

Unsurprisingly, Stephen Curry gets our top three-point mark in this game at 4.2, as an elite performer when faced with elimination, attempting nearly 12 three-point attempts in those games (just like last game when he went 7-12).

While hitting 5 threes takes him over our projection, it is both a plus-money value, and aligns with our 36% probability for him to knock down at least 6 threes, taking it one step lower for a higher chance.

Another datapoint that correlates well is our model favoring the Warriors to cover the spread as underdogs. We had the same prediction in the first play-in game, and they rode a brilliant Steph Curry performance to an upset win.

4. Mark Williams (Suns) over 7.5 rebounds (-106)

Game: Warriors vs. Suns

Tip: 10:00 PM ET

Finally, we'll look to the Suns' top-rebounder, and highest projected (once again) in this game, Mark Williams.

Williams projects right at his line of 7.5, but as our highest in this game, signals upside to go just over.

The Warriors have allowed an opponent to clear this line in 8 of their L10 and multiple players to clear this rebounds line in 6 of those and over the course of the season, allowed the sixth-most rebounds to opposing centers.

Williams is listed as questionable with left foot soreness so his status will be important to monitor.

If he sits, our next projected rebounder would be Grayson Allen (also questionable), but next man up at Center would be Oso Ighodaro, who currently projects at 4.7 rebounds, which would go up if Williams is ruled out.

NBA props parlay at +1473 odds

For a bigger payout at higher risk, consider a parlay of these four props at +1473 odds, which you can boost with a number of promos across the top sportsbooks.

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