NBA player props today: New Year's Day best props include Brook Lopez [1/1/2026]

Brook Lopez over 2.5 3-pointers made (+154)

• Edge: 15.4%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Projection: 2.9
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on LA Clippers' Brook Lopez over 2.5 3-pointers made. A probability of 54.8% gives this play an edge of 15.4% at +154 odds.

Amen Thompson over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 10.8%
• Probability: 46.8%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Rockets vs. Nets (6:00PM ET)

Amen Thompson’s steals prop shows a 10.8% edge at +178 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.3 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks (+162)

• Edge: 9.8%
• Probability: 47.9%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Rockets vs. Nets (6:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks, with simulations showing a 47.9% probability and a 9.8% edge at +162.

James Harden over 1.5 steals (+148)

• Edge: 9.5%
• Probability: 49.8%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

Our model projects James Harden to put up 1.5 steals today, creating an edge of 9.5% on the over 1.5 line at +148 odds.

Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks (+148)

• Edge: 9.4%
• Probability: 49.7%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks for Boston, showing an edge of 9.4% at +148 odds.

Anthony Davis over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 45.1%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: 76ers vs. Mavericks (8:30PM ET)

Anthony Davis’s steals prop shows an edge of 9.1% at +178 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.1 today.

Noah Clowney over 2.5 3-pointers made (+140)

• Edge: 8.4%
• Probability: 50.1%
• Projection: 2.5
• Game: Rockets vs. Nets (6:00PM ET)

Our model projects Noah Clowney for 2.5 3-pointers made for Brooklyn, creating an edge of 8.4% on over 2.5 at +140 odds.

P.J. Washington over 1.5 blocks (+138)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 49.3%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: 76ers vs. Mavericks (8:30PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects P.J. Washington for 1.4 blocks, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +138 odds and a 7.3% edge.

Derrick White over 1.5 blocks (+138)

• Edge: 7.1%
• Probability: 49.1%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

A 7.1% edge on the over 1.5 blocks line makes Derrick White a value play in Celtics vs. Kings, with our model projecting him for 1.4 blocks at +138 odds.

Kawhi Leonard over 4.5 assists (+123)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Projection: 4.8
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

Simulations project Kawhi Leonard for 4.8 assists here, creating a 6.6% edge on the over 4.5 line at +123 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, January 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 3:57AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Jazz vs. Clippers	Brook Lopez over 2.5 3-pointers made	+154 @ FanDuel	15.4%	54.8%
Rockets vs. Nets	Amen Thompson over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	10.8%	46.8%
Rockets vs. Nets	Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks	+162 @ FanDuel	9.5%	49.8%
Jazz vs. Clippers	James Harden over 1.5 steals	+148 @ FanDuel	9.5%	49.8%
Celtics vs. Kings	Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks	+148 @ FanDuel	9.4%	49.7%
76ers vs. Mavericks	Anthony Davis over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	9.1%	45.1%
Rockets vs. Nets	Noah Clowney over 2.5 3-pointers made	+140 @ FanDuel	8.4%	50.1%
76ers vs. Mavericks	P.J. Washington over 1.5 blocks	+138 @ FanDuel	7.3%	49.3%
Celtics vs. Kings	Derrick White over 1.5 blocks	+138 @ FanDuel	7.1%	49.1%
Jazz vs. Clippers	Kawhi Leonard over 4.5 assists	+123 @ DraftKings	6.6%	51.5%

Conclusion

For January 1, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Brook Lopez, Amen Thompson and Nic Claxton. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.