NBA player props today: New Year's Day best props include Neemias Queta [1/1/2026]

Dimers' NBA props are live for New Year's Day, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Neemias Queta, James Harden and Derrick White.

Our NBA player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Rockets vs. Nets and 76ers vs. Mavericks, to surface the best NBA player prop bets across the market.

List of NBA prop bets for Thursday, 1/1

Sourced from 30+ total props today, below are the top ten NBA player props for January 1, ranked by edge.

Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks (+156)

• Edge: 10.6%
• Probability: 49.7%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Boston's Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks. A probability of 49.7% gives this play an edge of 10.6% at +156 odds.

James Harden over 1.5 steals (+148)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 50.0%
• Projection: 1.5
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

James Harden’s steals prop shows a 9.7% edge at +148 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.5 steals on the over 1.5 line.

James Harden over 3.5 3-pointers made (+130)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 51.7%
• Projection: 3.6
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on James Harden over 3.5 3-pointers made, with simulations showing a 51.7% probability and an 8.3% edge at +130.

Derrick White over 1.5 blocks (+144)

• Edge: 8.1%
• Probability: 49.1%
• Projection: 1.4
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Our model projects Derrick White to record 1.4 blocks today, creating an edge of 8.1% on the over 1.5 line at +144 odds.

Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 7.9%
• Probability: 43.9%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals for Sacramento, showing an edge of 7.9% at +178 odds.

James Harden over 8.5 assists (+115)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 54.0%
• Projection: 9.2
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

James Harden’s assists prop shows an edge of 7.5% at +115 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 9.2 today.

Keegan Murray over 1.5 blocks (+149)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 47.3%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

Our model projects Keegan Murray for 1.2 blocks for Sacramento, creating an edge of 7.2% on over 1.5 at +149 odds.

Kawhi Leonard over 4.5 assists (+125)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Projection: 4.8
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Kawhi Leonard for 4.8 assists, creating value on the over 4.5 line at +125 odds and a 7.0% edge.

DeMar DeRozan over 1.5 steals (+169)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 44.1%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Celtics vs. Kings (10:00PM ET)

A 6.9% edge on the over 4.5 steals line makes DeMar DeRozan a value play in Celtics vs. Kings, with our model projecting him for 1.1 steals at +169 odds.

Isaiah Collier under 0.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 42.2%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Jazz vs. Clippers (10:30PM ET)

Simulations project Isaiah Collier for 1.1 steals here, creating a 6.3% edge on the under 0.5 line at +178 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, January 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 9:59PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Celtics vs. Kings	Neemias Queta over 1.5 blocks	+156 @ DraftKings	10.6%	49.7%
Jazz vs. Clippers	James Harden over 1.5 steals	+148 @ FanDuel	9.7%	50.0%
Jazz vs. Clippers	James Harden over 3.5 3-pointers made	+130 @ BetMGM	8.1%	49.1%
Celtics vs. Kings	Derrick White over 1.5 blocks	+144 @ DraftKings	8.1%	49.1%
Celtics vs. Kings	Russell Westbrook over 1.5 steals	+178 @ DraftKings	7.9%	43.9%
Jazz vs. Clippers	James Harden over 8.5 assists	+115 @ BetMGM	7.5%	54.0%
Celtics vs. Kings	Keegan Murray over 1.5 blocks	+149 @ DraftKings	7.2%	47.3%
Jazz vs. Clippers	Kawhi Leonard over 4.5 assists	+125 @ BetMGM	7.0%	51.5%
Celtics vs. Kings	DeMar DeRozan over 4.5 steals	+169 @ DraftKings	6.9%	44.1%
Jazz vs. Clippers	Isaiah Collier under 0.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	6.3%	42.2%

Conclusion

For January 1, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Neemias Queta, James Harden and Derrick White. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.