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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, December 10, 2025—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, De'Aaron Fox and Dillon Brooks lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 10, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 14.3% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.8% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 12.4% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.2% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 11.6% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 11.3% |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 11.2% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.0% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 10.6% |
| Collin Gillespie | Suns | 10.4% |
| Grayson Allen | Suns | 10.0% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 10.0% |
| Harrison Barnes | Spurs | 9.4% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 9.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 10, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Collin Gillespie | Suns | 1.3% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 0.2% | +800 | 11.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, December 10, 2025, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De'Aaron Fox and Dillon Brooks lead our first basket projections, with Brooks shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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