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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Pat Sharyon, Content Writer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, March 4, 2026—are live with the 76ers' Tyrese Maxey projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Maxey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 18.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.5% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 16.5% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.1% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 15.8% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.9% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.6% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 12.5% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.2% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 12.0% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 11.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 11.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 4.7% | +800 | 15.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 4.2% | +600 | 18.5% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 1.4% | +850 | 11.9% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.8% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 0.3% | +750 | 12.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Tyrese Maxey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead our first basket projections, while Keyonte George shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Pat Sharyon is an experienced writer who specializes in NFL and college football while also covering tennis, MLB, golf and a variety of international sports. Hailing originally from Boston, Massachusetts, Pat has a degree in linguistics from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
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