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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, February 4, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Nikola Jokic lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.1% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 16.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.0% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.3% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 11.8% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 11.4% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 3.7% | +650 | 17.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.7% | +950 | 12.2% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 2.4% | +1100 | 10.7% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.5% | +1000 | 10.6% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 0.3% | +850 | 10.9% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.1% | +850 | 10.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, February 4, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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