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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, January 7, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Jamal Murray lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 17.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 16.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 16.0% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.5% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 15.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.1% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.1% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.2% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.6% |
| Kon Knueppel | Hornets | 13.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 5.3% | +550 | 20.7% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.9% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.8% | +650 | 15.1% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.3% | +900 | 11.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.1% | +550 | 15.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.0% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, January 7, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson and Jamal Murray lead our first basket projections, with Antetokounmpo shaping as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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