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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, April 7, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Curry lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.4% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 14.7% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 14.5% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.1% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 13.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.8% |
| Ousmane Dieng | Bucks | 13.6% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 13.5% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.1% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 12.9% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 4.1% | +900 | 14.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 3.7% | +600 | 18.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 3.1% | +1100 | 11.4% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.9% | +750 | 14.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 2.3% | +650 | 15.7% |
| Quenton Jackson | Pacers | 2.3% | +900 | 12.3% |
| Micah Potter | Pacers | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.2% | +900 | 11.2% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.8% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 0.7% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.2% | +800 | 11.3% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 0.0% | +800 | 11.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, April 7, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Curry lead our first basket projections, while Cooper Flagg shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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