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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, March 3, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Zion Williamson lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 16.3% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.8% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 14.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.3% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.6% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 13.5% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.5% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.2% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.6% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.6% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.3% | +800 | 14.4% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.6% | +1000 | 11.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.9% | +750 | 13.6% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.7% | +750 | 13.5% |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 1.6% | +950 | 11.1% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.3% | +850 | 11.8% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 1.0% | +850 | 11.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 1.0% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 0.5% | +800 | 11.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, March 3, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Zion Williamson lead our first basket projections, while Jalen Duren shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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