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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, January 6, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Zion Williamson and Pascal Siakam lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 16.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 16.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.9% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.6% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 13.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.2% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 13.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 12.4% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.0% |
| Darius Garland | Cavaliers | 11.9% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.5% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 11.4% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | Heat | 2.5% | +800 | 13.6% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| Johnny Furphy | Pacers | 1.3% | +1200 | 9.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.3% | +800 | 12.4% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 0.6% | +600 | 14.9% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 0.5% | +700 | 13.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Darius Garland | Cavaliers | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, January 6, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Zion Williamson and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, while Norman Powell shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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