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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, April 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, April 9, 2026—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 15.0% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.3% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.9% |
| Leonard Miller | Bulls | 11.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 11.6% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 11.5% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 11.4% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 11.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 5.8% | +950 | 15.3% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 3.0% | +1300 | 10.1% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Leonard Miller | Bulls | 1.6% | +900 | 11.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 1.6% | +900 | 11.6% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.3% | +900 | 11.3% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.0% | +1000 | 10.1% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.9% | +600 | 15.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.8% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.8% | +800 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, April 9, 2026, Stephen Curry, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, with Curry shaping as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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