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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, March 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, March 5, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Zion Williamson and Jalen Duren lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 17.2% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 15.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.8% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 13.6% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 13.1% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 12.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.6% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.4% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.9% | +1000 | 11.9% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 2.0% | +800 | 13.1% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.1% | +650 | 14.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 0.5% | +500 | 17.2% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.3% | +850 | 10.8% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.2% | +850 | 10.8% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, March 5, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Zion Williamson and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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