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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 5, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.4% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.3% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 14.4% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 13.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 12.7% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 12.6% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.4% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.3% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 12.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.1% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 11.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 3.5% | +1000 | 12.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.6% | +750 | 13.4% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 1.4% | +950 | 10.9% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 1.0% | +600 | 15.3% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Bulls | 1.0% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.1% | +900 | 10.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 5, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead our first basket projections, while Moses Moody shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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